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The Interest Rate Fallacy with Dylan LeClair
In Episode #69 of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch'' podcast, Christian Keroles and I sat down with Dylan LeClair of Bitcoin Magazine’s Deep Dive once again. Dylan is one of the most familiar people with the niche between market technicals and bitcoin fundamentals. It was great to pick his brain over the current Federal Reserve taper and environment in which they are cutting rates. I include as many of the charts we talk about below, but you can also check out the episode on YouTube to see our screen shares.
Dylan was nice enough to share the link directly to his slides here, or check below in the LINKS section.
If you are in the Kansas City area, come out to Bitcoin Day to meet some bitcoiners, listen to some great talks, and network in the bitcoin space. Check out Bitcoinday.io.
Links
Bank of Canada ends QE bond buying program, a sign that higher rates are coming https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-canada-decision-1.6226796
Bank of England: Four scenarios for the November meeting https://think.ing.com/articles/bank-of-england-four-scenarios-for-the-november-meeting
Economic growth rate slows to 2% on a sharp slowdown in consumer spending https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/28/us-gross-domestic-product-increases-at-2point0percent-annualized-pace-in-q3-vs-2point8percent-estimate.html
Predictit.org for Fed Chairman https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7398/Whom-will-the-Senate-next-confirm-as-Chair-of-the-Federal-Reserve
Dylan’s Slides
https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1zsFh4dn3_RgCa2rvH7gE82nPiM_Z48NT2sjfcpqK4FM/edit?usp=sharing
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0:00 Welcome to Fed Watch Episode #69
6:00 Central Banks are Discussing Tapering
7:10 A deleveraging event is inevitable
8:26 warning signs in the market
10:06 Implications of a yield curve inversion
12:08 Another Warning Sign: Reverse REPO 15:15 Is Powell losing favorability
15:30 Deep Dive Monthly Review
21:00 Long Term Holder “Supply Shock” Ratio
22:00 ADS
25:13 Coin Days Destroyed is at historic lows
28:40 Bitcoin Balances on Exchanges
30:25 CME BTC Future Annualized 1-month basis
33:11 How to arbitrage Bitcoin Futures
36:06 The future of Bitcoins Financialization
38:37 Perpetual Futures Funding Rate
41: 45 A majority of the Bitcoin Derivative Market uses Stablecoins
42:49 Bitcoin weekend price action
44:46 ADS
46:39 Why Bitcoin is superior to gold
50:00 Bitcoin mining statistics
52:42 Bitcoin Miners building financial instruments
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