Quarter End - Is it Time to Rebalance?

(3/28/22) Markets' sharp rally heading into the end of the quarter was expected, lifting indexes above the 200- and 50-DMA amidst negative sentiment and light positioning in portfolios. The clearing of overhead resistance sets markets up for a little more rallying up to the levels seen in December last year. Markets are very over bought on multiple levels, and pretty close to triggering a sell-signal. That does not necessarily mean markets are going to immediately sell-off back down to their lows. But as we move into this week, the last in March, mutual funds, hedge funds, and pension fund managers all need to rebalance their portfolios, suggesting markets could hold their own for the next few days. But when the signals trigger, expect downward pressure on asset prices. Juxtapose to the stock market is the bond market, which is currently over-sold on multiple levers, and close to triggering a buy-signal. A risk-off move in equities would bode well for bonds, which are now over-sold by more than two standard deviations. Money flowing from risk-on to risk-off would potentially flow into bonds. So, any correction in equity prices should help push up bonds back towards their moving averages.
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