Continuing to Track the Long Term Bull Bear Metrics - Market Update 1-9-22

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3 years ago
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TALKING POINTS:
0:00 Intro
0:03 Dunning-Kruger and Trading
SHORT TERM THINGS THAT WARNED BEFORE THIS PULLBACK:
1:53 VIX Term Structure
2:58 SM/DM Confidence
3:20 SPY Sector Correlations
REASONS I AM BUYING THIS DIP:
6:32 Options Speculation Index
7:44 DIX is still "OK"
8:02 FANGMAN DIX Weak, the market might be looking for new leadership(Value might finally have a chance to shine?)
9:30 Value/Growth ratio
10:46 Sentiment very poor for so close to ATH
11:40 Insiders buying
11:49 SPY/VIX
14:40 Equity Hedging Index
15:16 SPY Social Sentiment
15:35 Total Put/Call Ratio
15:46 SPY Liquidity Premium
LONG TERM BULLISH METRICS:
16:00 Credit Spreads
17:15 Yield Curve(though weakening since March 2021, moving the wrong direction)
18:55 FED Balance Sheet
19:04 GDP ROC
19:35 Projected GDP
20:00 Projected SPX Earnings
20:52 M2 ROC
21:04 Daily News Sentiment Index
22:08 Cash Mountain(Money Market Funds)
LONG TERM BEARISH METRICS:
23:13 SPX PE10 Adjusted for Rates
23:50 HYG "weakening"
24:32 Three straight 10% years for SPX are rare. In the post QE environment, only one sample and it is not bullish
26:35 COT Dealer Exposure
26:58 TD IMX Retail Exposure

Hope everyone has a good trading week and I will see you in the next video!

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