Dalek News Mar 14 2022

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Who is Putin, and what is he capable of?
Or, what are his abilities to calculate and conduct state intrigues?
The agreed basic facts on Vladimir Putin can be found in multiple concurring sources. Putin was born October 7th 1952 Leningrad.
His parent’s two previous children died before the age of one. Their apartment was miserable and rat infested.
Putin’s early school life was rebellious, and he cared only for history and German.

As he began his teen age years his grades improved, and he was admitted to school number 281, which only took students with near perfect grades.
Following school Putin studied law at Leningrad State University and graduated in 1975.

Putin was the only one given a KGB position from his class of 100, and so he joined the Soviet intelligence service, the KGB. Work at the Leningrad KGB is reported as low key, and after a decade of it, he was posted to Dresden in East Germany in 1985, where he also was involved with the East German Stasi. East Germany had cleaner streets, better shops, and more political freedom.

By 1990 Putin was a Lt Colonel at age 38. Putin and his family returned to St Petersburg 1991, retiring from the KGB, if that was possible.
Vladimir Putin initially planned on doing a doctoral dissertation and working at Leningrad State University.
This is a significant point, as Putin is Doctoral law school material, based upon his own merits, and not on connections, wealth, and politics. He was capable of near perfect grades.

Putin’s former law professor Anatoly Sobchak was elected mayor of St. Petersburg in 1991.
From March 1994 to 1996, Putin served as Sobchak's deputy mayor. Putin was colloquially known as Sobchak’s fixer. Putin was incredibly loyal to Sobchak. After Sobchak narrowly lost the election in 1996, Putin made his way to Moscow.

Making his way up the political ladder, in Moscow in 1997, Vladimir Putin was named deputy chief of staff for Boris Yeltsin, President of Russia. Putin was appointed acting prime minister by Boris Yeltsin on August 9, 1999. On December 31, 1999 Boris Yeltsin resigned and named Putin as acting president.

March 26th, Putin was elected to the presidency with 53% of the vote. Putin was elected again in 2004, with almost 72% of the vote. In 2008, Putin then became Prime Minister again under President Medvedev, since the constitution limited a president to two terms. In 2012 he was elected President again with 64% of the vote. The term for president had been increased to six years.

In 2014 came the Crimean annexation.

In the presidential election on March 18th 2018 Putin received 77% of the vote.

What the significance of all of this?
A cursory examination illustrates that Putin is intellectually of a high rank. He is also a survivor, and capable of manipulating his way into power. From being a deputy Mayor to President of Russia in four years, and elected President four times. The handling of the Crimea crisis that used deception, unmarked Special Forces, posturing and politics was completely successful.
Putin does not use a cell phone, infrequently uses the internet, and gathers and disseminates information directly and through paper documents.

In earlier times, Khrushchev got the Americans to state that a meteorological flight had veered off course and had been lost in the USSR. The Americans choose this lie, and then Khrushchev produced the pilot Gary Powers, and the parts of the U-2 spy plane, showing them to have been violating Soviet airspace.

Putin is probably capable of laying more traps, and Biden has certainly fallen into to them.
Having admitted that no fighting will occur for the Ukraine as it is not part of NATO and forcing the admission of the existence of bio weapons labs are major coups. The public denouncement of the bio labs as fiction, and then the retraction is a major blow to US prestige.

It is like the American president lying about Soviet Missiles on Cuba, and then stating that they will not fight for Cuba, since it is not a part of NATO.

This is not the display of a world leader, it is the passivity of a world follower.

We can suggest that a Taiwanese referendum to normalize relations with China would receive a muted response, since it would be democratic and completely trustworthy, no doubt. Normalization meaning the usual obvious double speak.

Alternatively, people occasionally are past their prime and don’t realize it.

Like Mad Mike Hoar in the Seychelles in 1981, or Commander Crab in 1956, leaders can desire a come-back, or to reestablish their importance.

In summary to say a leader miscalculated requires knowing the initial calculation, and also being able to calculate on their level. The detailed calculations that Russia carried out are obviously not available. Also unavailable is a political calculator on the level of Putin.