3 Gorges Dam China Collapse: Could this be a "Black Swan" Disaster

3 gorges dam collapse could point to a 'black swan' disasterShow more

A dam in a small reservoir in China's Guangxi region collapsed last month after days of torrential rains that could be a tougher test for many of the country's 94,000 old dams as weather worsens. extreme.

Located in the Yangshuo area, famous for its otherworldly karst landscape, the dam collapsed around noon on June 7, inundating roads, gardens and fields in Shazixi village, residents told Reuters.

"I've never seen such a flood," said villager Luo Qiyuan, 81, who helped build the dam decades ago.

"The water level has never been this high in previous years, and the dam has never collapsed."

Completed in 1965, the dam, made of compacted soil, is designed to hold 195,000 cubic meters of water, enough to fill 78 Olympic-sized swimming pools and meet the irrigation needs of Shazixi farmers.

On a visit to the reservoir in mid-July, Reuters found the dam's length, about 100 meters, had largely disappeared. It was strengthened 25 years ago.

The water passed through the dam, which then collapsed, said a survey crew member at the reservoir, who declined to be named because he was not authorized to speak to the media.

Residents of Shazixi said there were no casualties.

But the collapse, which was not reported by domestic media, suggests a major storm may be enough to overwhelm the reservoir, especially if the design is lower and not properly maintained.

That raises the prospect of disaster in river valleys and floodplains which are much more densely populated than when the dam was built.

Environmental groups say climate change is bringing heavier and more frequent rains. Massive flooding could trigger an unexpected "black swan" event, the government said, with extreme consequences.

Thousands of dams were built in the 1950s and 1960s in a rush led by Mao Zedong to fend off drought in largely agrarian China.

In 2006, the Ministry of Water Resources stated that, between 1954 and 2005, embankments broke in 3,486 reservoirs due to substandard quality and poor management.

It was unclear whether record-breaking rains were to blame for the Shazixi collapse or if the dam's emergency overflow had been blocked by mud or if it was a design issue.

The water resources department in the area declined to comment. The local government did not respond to requests for comment.

In Guangxi, in southwest China, rainfall and average temperature were significantly higher in 1990-2018 compared to the previous 29 years, according to official data.

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