Life expectancy: a counterfactual example

If a man in the UK reaches the age of 82 then, on average, he can expect to live about another 8 years. So is it reasonable to assume that if a particular man reaches 82 and then contracts a virus from which he dies, he loses 8 years of life? The answer is no, because this is a counterfactual question. To get the correct answer requires a causal model and inference procedure beyond the scope of traditional statistics.Show more

Alse see this article on what inspired this video
https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2022/01/computing-years-of-lost-life-why.html

You can download the model used in the video here:
http://www.eecs.qmul.ac.uk/~norman/Models/counterfactual_life_expectancy2.cmpx
and run it using the free trial version of AgenaRisk
https://www.agenarisk.com/agenarisk-free-trial