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The final Mega Millions® jackpot value can end up being different from the estimate because estimates, while based on trends and historical patterns, are still estimates. When jackpots become extremely large, there are few precedents upon which to base the estimates. Typically, as much as 70% of sales occur on the drawing day, so forecasting precise numbers in advance can be difficult and can be affected by external factors such as the weather. Changes in both sales and the U.S. Treasuries rate explain why the advertised jackpot amounts are always noted as estimates. Historically, actual winning jackpots have come in at levels above, below, and equal to the estimated figures in roughly similar proportions. And regardless of whether a jackpot-winning player chooses the cash value or the annuity option, they receive the available jackpot based on actual sales, which may vary from the estimated jackpot.