How To Update Your Beliefs Systematically - Bayes’ Theorem
YT grab https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R13BD8qKeTg
Bayes' theorem explained with examples and implications for life.
Check out Audible: http://ve42.co/audible
Support Veritasium on Patreon: http://ve42.co/patreon
I didn't say it explicitly in the video, but in my view the Bayesian trap is interpreting events that happen repeatedly as events that happen inevitably. They may be inevitable OR they may simply be the outcome of a series of steps, which likely depend on our behaviour. Yet our expectation of a certain outcome often leads us to behave just as we always have which only ensures that outcome. To escape the Bayesian trap, we must be willing to experiment.
Special thanks to Patreon supporters:
Tony Fadell, Jeff Straathof, Donal Botkin, Zach Mueller, Ron Neal, Nathan Hansen, Saeed Alghamdi
Useful references:
The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver
The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes’ Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy, by Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
Bayes' theorem or rule (there are many different versions of the same concept) has fascinated me for a long time due to its uses both in mathematics and statistics, and to solve real world problems. Bayesian inference has been used to crack the Enigma Code and to filter spam email. Bayes has also been used to locate the wreckage from plane crashes deep beneath the sea.
Music from http://epidemicsound.com "Flourishing Views 3"
-
16:05
TreasonExposed
20 hours agoMore clues about what’s coming from Sabrina
239 -
LIVE
Darkhorse Podcast
3 hours agoThe 235th Evolutionary Lens with Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying
1,555 watching -
LIVE
WeAreChange
2 hours agoSIRHAN SIRHAN 2.0: Hypnotherapist Reveals MKUltra Makings Of Would-Be Trump Assassin?!
3,109 watching -
LIVE
Revenge of the Cis
1 hour agoLocals Episode 169: The Boss Called
435 watching -
2:22:43
The Quartering
4 hours agoKamala Coup BLASTED By Woke Left, Insurrection At The Capitol & WILD New Trump Poll Data!
46.7K64 -
1:20:10
Mally_Mouse
2 hours agoLet's Yap About It - LIVE
3.53K4 -
15:35
Dr Steve Turley
1 hour agoYou Won't BELIEVE What Congress Did to Nancy Pelosi!!!
4.73K9 -
2:09:33
Midnight's Edge
6 hours agoThe biggest shareholder abandons Disney, on the eve Deadpool vs Wolverine | MEiTM #591
36.2K9 -
1:08:14
JTtheSG
7 hours agoLIVE Replay - Honor of Kings Wednesday [7/24/2024]
10.4K -
28:57
Stephen Gardner
2 hours agoDemocrats will CRUMBLE with Kamala as head | Nancy Pelosi targeted and jailed me say Peter Navarro
19.4K30