Conflicts of Interest #204: Are America and Israel Waking Up to the Iran Reality?

Kyle covers the Russians’ security proposals presented to Washington. Among other things, Moscow wants no intermediate-range nuclear weapons in Europe and an end to NATO’s eastward expansion. They also request a halt to offensive weapon deployments near Russia’s borders. Connor and Kyle discuss the prospects for substantive U.S.-Russian diplomacy and China’s role as more than an ally of Moscow.

Kyle then reports on America’s latest escalations with Beijing. The U.S. has added more Chinese officials to a sanctions blacklist over the Hong Kong legislative elections. Beyond Trump and Biden's trade war, Washington appears to be moving toward decoupling with at least parts of China, making conflict more likely. Alarmingly, the U.S. Indo-Pacific command has reportedly built software to predict China’s future reactions to the American military’s constant provocations. Unfortunately, this disturbing innovation will likely lead to even more aggressive actions such as U.S. warship transits through the Taiwan Strait.

Connor also talks about Iran’s decision to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to replace cameras at a centrifuge factory sabotaged by an Israeli drone. The talks in Vienna have temporarily paused. Though we are seeing different narratives as to where negotiations stand. The Iranians seem upbeat and claim their draft proposals have finally been accepted as the basis for further multilateral discussion. However, the Europeans say the JCPOA has been “hollowed out.” Washington’s Iran envoy says there will soon be “no deal to be revived.” Conversely, the Russians caution against “hasty conclusions” that the deal is almost dead. On the other hand, the Israelis are toning down their previous bellicose threats, claiming Tel Aviv simply lacks the ability alone to successfully attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. Connor and Kyle have a conversation about Tehran’s growing ties with longtime regional adversaries and what this could all mean for the JCPOA’s future.

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