NFL picks and predictions for Sunday’s games.

NFL picks and predictions for Sunday’s games.
ET 1 unit on the BENGALS +2.5 (+100) because there’s “reverse line movement” in Cincy’s direction and the Bengals have been a lot more efficient thus far.
A vast majority of the action is on Green Bay to cover but Cincy has gone from a 3.5-point underdog down to the current price.
It’s a red flag whenever sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.
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The Bengals have a higher net points per play, yards per play and red zone-scoring differentials.
On top of that, Green Bay has a negative expected points added (EPA) differential.
And each team has played a similar strength of schedule.
There’s an old-school handicapping angle where you flip the 3-point home field advantage and analyze the game.
So, in this case, we’d make the Packers home and add six points to their spread.
It would be hard to argue Green Bay laying 8.5 points is a good bet.