It's easy to dismiss information you don't understand (9-3-21)

2 years ago
29 Eric Kaufman: "But the big demographic story of the 2010s wasn’t about White Americans, but the big drop in Hispanic fertility, which is rapidly converging with the more stable white rate. So even while the share of “unmixed” whites will probably dip below 50% by 2050, the share who are considered socially white is likely to be a majority into the foreseeable future."

"One of the few seeking to dispel such illusions is leading American sociologist of ethnicity, Richard Alba. However, his important book The Great Demographic Illusion failed to garner reviews because it doesn’t fit the prevailing narrative. Instead, the media are attracted to demographic stories which heighten white threat perceptions, gratifying progressives while increasing support for Trumpism." John B. Judis writes: "Over time, social mobility and intermarriage will likely further weaken the distinction between Americans identified as white and those with Asian and Hispanic ancestry. As sociologist Richard Alba has argued, census projections that the U.S. will become a “majority minority” nation by 2045 are likely to prove false.

To confuse matters more, the census introduced in 2020 a “diversity index” that filtered out Hispanics who considered themselves “white” by creating a quasiracial category of 57.8% “non-Hispanic whites.” This was the percentage most commentators reported as “whites.” It eliminated the 20.3% of people of Hispanic origin who still checked off only “white.” The authors of the census appear determined to fuel nativist fears that whites are being “replaced” and liberal hopes of a growing minority-based Democratic majority.

As for politics, Democrats may become the majority party, but not through demographics alone. Like earlier first- and second-generation Americans, many Hispanics and Asians initially found a home in the Democratic Party, but later (like the Irish or Poles) have begun making their political choices based on class, interest and values. If later-generation Hispanics and Asian-Americans still vote Democratic, it probably won’t be out of ethnic identification. There was some evidence of that in the 2016 and 2020 elections, in rising support among these groups for Donald Trump and other Republicans."

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