Modeling the Supply Chain: Trust but Verify - ICCWS 2020

Presented at the 15th International Conference on Cyber Warfare & Security (ICCWS), March 13, 2020, Norfolk VA
"Trust, but verify" is a Russian proverb that has reverberated throughout history. Trust involves a belief in the fidelity of what is being evaluated. But fidelity can fluctuate, making trust more accurately characterized as varying rather than binary. This concept is especially true in the operation and evaluation of complex systems. Supply chains model and exemplify complex systems through vital interconnections for the delivery of goods based on the management of all involved parties in business processes. Supply chains encompass the complex interconnection of multiple systems, independently owned and often optimized with different, competing priorities. Disruption of trust may be an intentional objective; supply chains are critical, complex and increasingly automated and technology assisted, which makes them a focal point for sufficiently advanced adversaries.