【63】コロナワクチンの問題を考えるために - 大橋眞
コロナワクチンの話題が、マスコミ等で盛んに取り上げられるようになりましたl。いつワクチンができるのかというような、短期間でワクチンができることを期待させるように大衆を誘導していると思える報道も目につきます。しかしながら、仮に短期間でワクチンと称するものが出来たとしても、実際の安全性の確認にはかなりの時間がかかります。
ここでは、例として1年で日本国民全員に接種するような急速なスケールアップの場合と6年かけでスケールアップする時を比較します。この場合、前年度の接種後の結果を次年度の拡大時に適応出来ない人数の期待値で計算します。6年かけてスケールアップした時には、1年で急速にスケールアップした時と比較すると、1/5000以下に診療試験の結果を適応できない人数を減らすことができることがわかります。
このようなモデルは、試作品を実用レベルまでスケールアップするときの危険を回避する手段として、少しづつスケールアップしながら、マイナーな問題点を改良していくという手法と似ています。このような数学モデルで考えられることを普遍的なものとして捉えることにより、物事の本質が見えてきます。
The topic of corona vaccine has been actively taken up in the media. There are also reports that seem to be guiding the public to expect a vaccine in a short period of time, such as when it will be vaccinated. However, even if a vaccine is produced in a short period of time, it will take a considerable amount of time to confirm the actual safety.
Here, as an example, we will compare the case of rapid scale-up such as inoculating all Japanese people in one year and the time of scale-up in six years. In this case, the result after vaccination in the previous year will be calculated based on the expected value of the number of people who cannot adapt to the expansion in the next year. It can be seen that when scaled up over 6 years, the number of people who cannot adapt the results of clinical trials to less than 1/5000 can be reduced compared to when scaled up rapidly in 1 year.
Such a model is similar to the method of improving minor problems while gradually scaling up as a means of avoiding the danger when scaling up the prototype to a practical level. The essence of things can be seen by taking what can be thought of in such a mathematical model as universal.
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