【61】コロナワクチン普及問題の本質を考える - 大橋眞
コロナワクチンを普及させる動きが活発化しています。ワクチンに限らず、医療において新しい薬の導入等においても共通する問題があります。限られた人数での臨床試験(治験)の後で、厚労省の承認を得て一般に普及するわけですが、治験の結果として重篤な副作用なしというデータが、一般への普及という形でスケールアップした時にどの程度担保されるかという問題です。
この問題を考える上で、確率と期待値という高等学校の数学の考え方を利用する方法があります。例えば400人の治験者のデータにより、重篤な副作用が出なかったとしても、スケールアップした時には、スケールアップの倍数に約0.9を掛けた人数までの重篤な副作用については、この治験の結果は保証できないということになります。この人数の治験の結果を、一気に全国民を対象とすると、30万人近くの重篤な副作用が保証出来ないことが算出されます。このことは、コロナワクチンを一気に普及させることの危険性を示す一例です。
マスコミ報道で、ワクチンへの期待を促すようなものが多く見られますが、このような危険な側面に言及するものは見当たりません。国民が自らがこの問題を考える必要があります。
The movement to popularize the corona vaccine is intensifying. Not limited to vaccines, there are common problems in the introduction of new drugs in medicine. After a clinical trial (clinical trial) with a limited number of people, it will be widely disseminated with the approval of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, but the data that there are no serious side effects as a result of the clinical trial is in the form of dissemination to the general public. The question is how much is guaranteed when scaled up.
In thinking about this problem, there is a way to use the idea of high school mathematics such as probability and expected value. For example, data from 400 investigators show that even if there are no serious side effects, when scaled up, the results of this trial are for serious side effects up to a multiple of the scale-up multiplied by about 0.9. Can not be guaranteed. If the results of clinical trials of this number of people are targeted at all people at once, it is calculated that serious side effects of nearly 300,000 people cannot be guaranteed. This is an example of the danger of spreading the corona vaccine all at once.
There are many media reports that encourage expectations for vaccines, but I can't find anything that mentions such a dangerous aspect. The people need to think about this issue themselves.
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