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【58】新型コロナにワクチンは必要か - 大橋眞
多くの謎を抱えた新型コロナ感染症。この対策と称して、多くの会社等がワクチン開発に取り組んでいます。テレビなどのマスコミでもワクチンが新型コロナ対策の切り札であるというような宣伝が目につきます。
新聞においても、新型コロナワクチンの臨床治験が開始されるという報道が出てきました。大阪のベンチャー企業が、大阪の大学や自治体の支援の元に開発を進めているDNAワクチンです。遺伝子組み換えワクチンの臨床試験はわが国では初めてです。
今回は、新聞報道の臨床試験の概要から、このワクチンの問題点を考えていきます。臨床試験は約400人の人が対象ですから、この臨床試験の結果から出すことができる重篤な副作用には限界があります。数学的に考えると、この臨床試験の結果を全国民を対象としたワクチン接種するというモデルで算定すると、およそ15万人程度までの重篤な副作用については、予知できないことになります。また、重篤とまで行かない副作用や、5年、10年、20年後の発がん性などの副作用に対する予知もできません。これは、短期間で開発するワクチンの宿命であり、一定レベルの予期しない問題点が起こることは避けて通れないわけです。厚労省の許認可にも限界があることや、短期開発ワクチンの本質的な宿命を理解した上で、新型コロナ感染症の本質と共に、国民的な議論が必要な問題です。
A new type of corona infection with many mysteries. Many companies are working on vaccine development as this measure. Even in the media such as TV, there are advertisements that vaccines are the trump card for the new corona countermeasures.
In the newspaper, it was reported that clinical trials of the new corona vaccine will be started. This DNA vaccine is being developed by a venture company in Osaka with the support of universities and local governments in Osaka. This is the first clinical trial of a genetically modified vaccine in Japan.
This time, we will consider the problems of this vaccine from the outline of clinical trials reported in newspapers. Since the clinical trial covers about 400 people, there are limits to the serious side effects that can be achieved from the results of this clinical trial. Mathematically, if the results of this clinical trial are calculated using a model of vaccination for all people, serious side effects of up to about 150,000 people cannot be predicted. In addition, it is not possible to predict side effects that are not serious or carcinogenic after 5, 10 or 20 years. This is the fate of a vaccine that will be developed in a short period of time, and it is inevitable that a certain level of unexpected problems will occur. It is a problem that needs to be discussed publicly, along with the essence of the new coronavirus disease, after understanding the limitations of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare and the essential fate of short-term development vaccines.
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