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【40】コロナ騒動における西浦理論を見直す - 大橋眞
西浦理論により、接触者8割削減という目標が設定され、全国に非常事態宣言が発出されました。その結果自粛ということが感染の拡大を抑制するために必要であると誤解する人が多くなってしまいました。その意味では、西浦理論は、コロナ騒動の中で大きな役割を果たしたと言えるわけです。しかしながら、西浦理論の中身について理解している人は少ないように思います。今回は、この西浦理論の内容について考えてみたいと思います。不確かな感染者の推移だけでは、あまりにデータが少ないため、数学を用いた推定には限界があります。変数や定数の多い複雑な数式を持ち込んでも、当てはめるデータがないのです。複雑な数式は、8割という意味のない数値を正当化するために、ごまかしの手段になったようです。数学がこのようにごまかしの手段として使われたことに気づくべきだと思います。
According to Nishiura's theory, a goal of 80% reduction in contacts was set, and a state of emergency was issued nationwide. As a result, many people misunderstand that self-restraint is necessary to control the spread of infection. In that sense, it can be said that Nishiura's theory played a major role in the corona turmoil. However, I think that few people understand the contents of Nishiura theory. This time, I would like to think about the content of this Nishiura theory. There is a limit to the estimation using mathematics because there is too little data based on the uncertain transition of infected people. Even if you bring in a complex formula with many variables and constants, there is no data to apply. Complex formulas seem to have become a means of deception to justify the meaningless number of 80%. I think you should be aware that mathematics was used as a means of deception in this way.
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