The Wire - November 27, 2025

//The Wire//1500Z November 27, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: DC SHOOTER IDENTIFIED AS FORMER AFGHAN SOLDIER BROUGHT TO USA AFTER THE FALL OF KABUL. HONG KONG FIRE RESULTS IN DOZENS OF FATALITIES.//

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-International Events-

Africa: A military coup was reported yesterday in Guinea-Bissau, with President Umaro Sissoco Embaló being arrested at his residence in Bissau. This follows a few weeks of election issues after the President disqualified his political opponent from the election.

Analyst Comment: The fall of Guinea-Bissau is the latest addition to what has been colloquially referred to as the "coup belt", a line of nations stretching east-west across Africa, which have been host to overthrowing their governments over the past five years.

Hong Kong: Yesterday a multiple-alarm fire broke out at a series of high-rise apartment buildings that were undergoing renovation in Tai Po. Around one thousand firefighters, medical, and police officers worked to extinguished the fires, which involved 7 of the 8 skyscrapers that comprise the Wang Fuk Court housing project. Concerning casualties, 65x fatalities are confirmed so far, however potentially hundreds of people remain missing as this complex provided housing for roughly 4,000 people. A few hours after the fire broke out, three people who worked for the construction company conducting repairs on the buildings were arrested on suspicion of arson.

Analyst Comment: Although several people were arrested, it's not clear as to if this was a deliberate attack or a preventable accident. Right now, locals suspect criminal negligence: the contractor is said to have cut corners during the renovation project, by using highly flammable netting and foam insulation during construction. If this is really what happened, this would explain the rapid spread of the fire to seven different structures. An investigation will be needed to confirm the origin and explain the rapid spread of the fire, but right now this incident bears striking resemblance to the Grenfell Tower fire, which rapidly consumed the London apartment building in a similar manner back in 2017. That incident occurred in nearly the same manner, with highly flammable foam insulation being used to insulate the structure, which caught fire and allowed the flames to spread rapidly.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - The suspect in yesterday's shooting has been identified as Rahmanullah Lakanwal, a former Afghan soldier who worked with the United States as part of the Afghan intelligence services during the Global War on Terrorism. Ramanullah was granted entry to the United States in 2021 under Operation ALLIES WELCOME, the program to evacuate Afghans who worked with the US government during the occupation.

Regarding the attack itself, more details have come to light which help explain how the attack was carried out. Rahmanullah approached the two soldiers with a revolver, shooting one in the head immediately and severely wounding the other. This took both soldiers out of the fight immediately, as neither had time to react.

By happenstance, one of their officers (a Major) was walking on foot in their vicinity, conducting an informal spot check of the various security posts set up in the area. This Major was not armed with a service weapon, but was the primary responder at the time of the attack. After the two soldiers were engaged, the Major took up a position of cover and concealment near the shooter. When the shooter stopped firing and began reloading, the Major attacked the shooter with a personally owned pocket knife, stabbing the attacker in the head and torso. As this hand-to-hand engagement was occurring, another armed soldier arrived and engaged the attacker with his firearm, striking the suspect several times in the extremities. From there, a dogpile situation occurred and the attacker was detained.

Analyst Comment: Though details will certainly be clarified in due time, at present this appears to be a classic case of everyone doing everything right, and tragedy still being the result. Both soldiers were armed and wearing body armor at the time, however the speed and extremely close range of the attack rendered these tools ineffective. The Major who helped end the attack was not armed as he was not occupying a security post himself, so this is not out of the ordinary. The soldier who was armed and shot the suspect, arrived almost immediately after hearing the shots.

Concerning the wounded, yesterday afternoon confusion emerged regarding the status of the soldiers. Governor Morrisey retracted his statement on their condition, as both soldiers have not succumbed to their wounds and still remain in critical condition at local hospitals. Prayers are strongly encouraged all around for their recovery.

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Analyst Comments: The shooting in Washington also highlights the importance of having fast *and* accurate information during a crisis. Immediately after the shooting, one photo of the suspect being loaded into an ambulance began circulating online. However, some people took this photo and ran it through AI models to clean up the image, as a shaky photo taken with a smartphone from a long distance doesn't usually offer the best image quality.

The problem is that the AI models significantly altered the face of the suspect. In short, someone tried to clean up the image with AI, but in doing so, the face of the suspect was slightly altered and no longer looked like him. The effect was subtle, but enough to actually change what the man looked like. This photo spread like wildfire, with everyone craving the higher-resolution photo of the suspect, despite this AI-manipulated photo not actually being accurate. At the height of a terror attack, the primary photo of the suspect that circulated social media...was an AI photoshop job.

In most cases, the fact that this image was AI "enhanced" was NOT disclosed...people had no idea they were looking at (and sharing) a manipulated photo. As if this wasn't serious enough, a second wave of AI-manipulated photos hit the timeline shortly after the suspect was identified. The actual photo of the suspect as leaked on social media was a cellphone photo of a computer screen, and not the best quality. So, some journalists took it upon themselves to manipulate yet another photo of the suspect, which once again changed details of the suspect's face. In this case, the AI-model was a little more accurate, and did a better job of cleaning up a poor-quality image, but the concerns still stand...no one disclosed that this image was generated by AI, and based on a different photo.

Sometimes, we have to be content with the information that we have at the time of a crisis. Not everything can be in 4k ultra-high resolution, and right now all AI models have shown weaknesses in producing false information at times. This would be very wise to consider as this situation is very likely to happen again; some fugitive wanted by police might only have one or two blurry photos to share with the media. And if the media decide to alter the photos themselves, changing the physical features of the suspect, the public will be on the lookout for the wrong man. During the heat of the moment, the fast-paced nature of an emergency might result in the internet not realizing that AI-models are being used by people who are not disclosing it. During a crisis, photos of suspects are often released very quickly, especially if there are continued threats. These photos are usually never high resolution or perfect quality, but due to the speed at which the public must be aware of something, authorities share what information they have at the time. If journalists are going to start taking the photos given to them by the police, and running those photos through AI models before publishing them to the public...this is a major problem.

This has been a concern for some time, however now the proof is in the pudding. In effect, this was a test that most people on the internet failed. It is not just theoretically possible for inaccurate and manipulative AI-generated content to slip in during a real-time disaster...this case proves that it already happened, and very few people noticed. If we recall, this exact same situation has already happened as well. In the hours after the Charlie Kirk shooting, for example, AI-manipulated renderings of the suspect circulated more widely than the official photos as released by the FBI. In that case, a wanted fugitive was actively being sought, and the fake photos of the suspect circulated more widely than the official photos. People want pretty pictures, but this is almost never the reality of emergencies that are in progress. Nevertheless, the nature of engagement farming on social media often impacts the situation, as AI-created content is often more desirable than the truth. As such, when it comes to future emergencies, one of the major concerns will now be imagery of a suspect or a crime scene, which may be heavily manipulated by AI.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
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