What to Watch Update for Monday November 24, 2025

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Summary of the What to Watch Video Update for Monday, Nov 24, 2025:
The big-picture (months-to-years) trend remains bullish — no major shift to a bearish or recessionary environment yet. However, the short-term (days-to-weeks) and to some extent intermediate-term (weeks-to-months) picture has turned clearly weak/negative, with defensive rotation, poor breadth, and a sharp reversal on Thursday (classic pump-and-dump after hitting the 20-day SMA). Friday’s bounce helped a little but did not reverse the deteriorating internals.
Positives (mostly longer-term):
Long-term ratios (S&P vs. bonds, Nasdaq 100 vs. Dow, semis vs. Dow, etc.) still in uptrends; no breakdown yet.
Still above key 100-day and 200-day moving averages.
Long-term rainbows and Ichimoku cloud still supportive.
Percent of S&P stocks above 200-day SMA still above 50%.
Potential Zweig Breadth Thrust setting up (first leg triggered Nov 20; needs extreme upside by Dec 5 for confirmation — has historically led to strong rallies).
Seasonality favors upside into year-end (Thanksgiving week + December).
Some long-term momentum indicators are still positive.
Negatives (mostly short- and intermediate-term — longer list):
Below 20-day and 50-day SMAs; now trading below the short- and intermediate-term rainbows.
Defensive rotation in full swing: value beating growth, staples outperforming discretionary, low-beta beating high-beta, across large-, mid-, and small-caps.
VIX spiked above 20 (closed 23.4), historically associated with negative forward returns.
Weak breadth: McClellan Oscillators, A/D lines, new highs collapsing, new lows expanding, Bullish Percent Indexes below 50 and falling.
All three “smart money” indicators negative.
Weekly Parabolic SAR flipped bearish for the first time in a long while.
Growth leaders (semis, FANG, momentum stocks, Tesla/Amazon) underperforming.
Small-caps and mid-caps lagging badly despite Friday bounce.
Equal-weight S&P outperforming cap-weighted → the mega-caps are not carrying the market currently.
Watching Closely (could tip the balance):
Continuing jobless claims and long-term unemployment creeping higher.
U.S. dollar strength (back above 100) — stocks prefer a weaker dollar.
10-year yield and high-yield spreads (not screaming danger yet, but watching).
Semiconductors (often an early-cycle leader) — continued weakness would be a big yellow flag.
Hindenburg Omen has triggered and received confirmations — has preceded major declines in the past (COVID crash, 2022 bear market).
Retail, transports, regional banks, Bitcoin/Nasdaq correlation.
Conclusion:
We’re still in a long-term uptrend, but the short- and intermediate-term trends have rolled over. The markets are asking whether this is just a deeper pullback inside a bull market or the start of something worse. So far, the evidence still leans toward ‘deeper pullback,’ but the negative list is growing quickly and internals are poor. Need to see real improvement in breadth and leadership soon or the bigger-picture positives will start to erode.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/14W_Q0fR_hXtc8oCSSnY2DAUI2cOhUAWt/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!