S&P 500 Daily Update for Friday November 21, 2025

Link to The SPX Investing Program https://spxinvesting.substack.com

Link to The Daily Pivot Newsletter: https://thedailypivotnewsletter.substack.com/

Link to Video-Only Immediate Access:
https://spxvideos.substack.com/

Summary of the Daily Market Update for Thursday, Nov 20, 2025:
Outlook for Friday Nov 21, 2025:
Market Action on Thursday:
Pre-market was very bullish after NVIDIA’s strong earnings beat → futures up 1–1.5%, NVDA up over 5% after hours.
Opened with a big gap higher (S&P above R2 at 6731), briefly touched last Friday’s high (Nov 14 peak).
Classic intraday reversal (“pump and dump”): sold off hard after the first 1–2 hours, closed at the low of the day.
S&P 500 closed down –1.56% on above-average volume, below S2 support (6559) and the lower Bollinger Band.
NVDA ended down –3.15% despite the great report (very similar to a previous post-earnings reversal 1–1.5 years ago).
Broad-based selling: tech, semis, growth, mega-caps, mid-caps, small-caps all hit hard. Only staples finished slightly positive (defensive rotation).
Technical Picture:
Short- and intermediate-term trends negative (below 20- and 50-day MAs).
Lost the 50-day MA on semis again; now sitting right on the 100-day MA + a shorter-term anchored VWMA confluence → key support zone.
VIX spiked to 26.42 (highest in a while, RSI on VIX above 70 → short-term fear extreme).
Multiple breadth/momentum indicators showing strong negative conviction (McClellan, summation index, advance-decline, etc.).
Hindenburg Omen confirmed (initial + confirmation spikes still active).
Sentiment flushed to extremely bearish (CNN Fear & Greed at 6, put/call ratios elevated).
Macro / Other Notes:
Stronger dollar (DXY above 100), modest drop in 10-year yield (flight-to-safety light).
Old employment data (119k jobs added, unemployment 4.4%) seen as “not weak enough” for a December cut → reduced odds of a rate cut.
The S&P 500 remains in a positive long-term uptrend and seasonally strong period, but short-term character has turned defensive and momentum is clearly down.
Technical Picture:
Watching the 100-day MA/VWMA confluence for potential bounce, but warns of more room to the downside if it fails.
No major extreme oversold readings yet except percent-B (lower Bollinger Band close) and VIX RSI.
Friday is monthly Options Expiration → can be volatile; seasonality mixed to slightly positive, but unless a big reversal occurs, November is shaping up as a down month so far (contrary to historical strength).
Conclusion:
Classic post-NVIDIA-earnings reversal turned a strongly bullish open into a sharp broad-market decline. Short- and intermediate-term trends are now negative, breadth and momentum confirm distribution, and the S&P 500 is testing the important 100-day / VWMA support. Long-term trend remains up, but near-term risk is skewed lower unless buyers defend current levels aggressively.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zaBi5mhv2hsAURNinpkKhQRHK9pJVGVd/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!