Daily Update Podcast for Thursday November 20, 2025

Summary of the Daily Market Update for Nov 19, 2025:
Outlook for Thursday Nov 20, 2025:
Big Picture:
The major event was NVIDIA’s earnings after the close on Wednesday. NVDA was trading up over 5% in after-hours, currently driving S&P futures up 1.25% overnight. This sparked hope for a bullish reversal, but caution remains since the S&P 500 is still short- and intermediate-term negative, with major indexes below their 50-day MAs and many breadth/momentum indicators still deteriorating.
Recap:
Modest gain: S&P 500 +0.38% on below-average volume.
Opened higher, briefly cleared R1 (6665), but hit resistance at Tuesday’s daily pivot and drifted lower before chopping sideways and closing slightly up.
Semiconductors recaptured their 50-day MA (positive), but S&P, NASDAQ, and NDX remain below theirs.
Mega-cap/tech had a decent day; defensive sectors (utilities, staples, real estate) lagged.
Current Technical Posture:
Short- & intermediate-term trends: Negative (below 50-day MAs, red line above the green line on directional system, ADX rising but still below 20 → not yet “confirmed” strong trend).
Long-term: Still positive (well above 200-day MA).
VIX 23.66 (above 20 → historically negative annualized returns).
Confirmed Hindenburg Omen still active (prior spikes valid).
Sentiment is very pessimistic short-term (contrarian bullish signal), but no strong confirmation of a turn yet.
Anchored VWMA and other longer-term support levels still holding.
Key Upcoming Events:
Thursday (Nov 20): Some employment data will be released out of the normal sequence (because of prior government shutdown delays). Calendar remains scrambled into December.
Ongoing uncertainty about December Fed rate cut: market-implied odds have flipped from 95% chance of a 25 bp cut to now showing a 67% chance of no cut.
Bull Case:
NVDA reaction could spark a relief rally and recapture positive seasonality typical for this time of year.
Short-term oscillators (Stochastics, CCI, etc.) showing slight improvement; semiconductors back above 50-day.
Extreme pessimism + oversold readings could set up a bounce.
Bear Case:
Could be another “pump-and-dump” open (gap up → sell-off), similar to prior false starts.
The S&P 500 remains defensive; breadth, advance-decline, smart-money flows, and most momentum indicators still negative.
Stronger dollar, and delayed/missing economic reports add uncertainty.
Conclusion:
Still short- and intermediate-term negative, long-term positive. Wednesday’s modest gain and NVDA’s strong report improved the tone slightly, but nothing has definitively flipped the trend yet. Thursday’s open and follow-through after NVDA earnings will be critical — a sustained move higher could challenge the bearish bias; a failure to hold gains would reinforce the current defensive posture.
Watch for either (1) a legitimate bullish reversal that brings indexes back above 50-day MAs and flips breadth/momentum positive, or (2) a failed rally that resumes the downtrend. Bias remains cautious/negative until proven otherwise.