Daily Update Podcast for Friday November 14, 2025

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Summary of the Daily Market Update for Thursday, November 13, 2025
Outlook for Friday November 14, 2025:
Overall Market Action:
Sharp broad-based decline: S&P 500 down 1.66% on above-average volume (first pickup in volume on a down day in a while, showing conviction/possibly some panic selling).
Gapped lower at the open, broke below S2 (6810), S3 (6770), and eventually S4 (6729), closing just above S4.
Short-term trend flipped to negative (below 20-period MAs).
Intermediate term still positive but now testing/converging at 50-day MAs across many indexes.
Long-term trend remains positive.
Key Themes:
Rotation from Growth → Value/Defensive intensifying
Growth got crushed worse than value (large-cap growth -2.19%, value less than half of that).
Small- and mid-cap growth-to-value ratios breaking down, some below 200-day MAs.
Discretionary/Staples and High Beta/Low Beta ratios rolling over → market getting more defensive.
Government shutdown resolved (until Jan 30), but market already priced it in.
No celebratory bounce; profits taken instead.
Backlog of economic data (CPI, jobless claims, etc.) still uncertain → some reports may never come out.
Fed speak turned hawkish again. Several Fed officials (Collins, Musalem, Hammack) reiterated need to keep rates restrictive longer and fight sticky 3% inflation.
December rate-cut odds now closer to 50/50 or lower.
Technical & Sentiment Highlights:
VIX spiked above 20 intraday, closed right at 20.
Confirmed Hindenburg Omen still in play (initial + confirmation spikes).
Sentiment flipped back to extreme negative (AAII bearish, put/call ratios up, equity fear gauges rising).
Gamma flip now negative (flip level 6766).
Breadth weakening: new highs contracting, new lows expanding, A/D line rolling over.
StochRSI extreme oversold (one of the few strongly oversold readings).
Sector & Index Performance:
Almost everything red except Energy (slightly up) and Staples (flat).
Tech, Discretionary, Communication Services led declines.
Mega-cap damage: Tesla -6.2%, Nvidia -3.6%, Amazon -2.7%, Google -2.8%.
Many indexes (Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, SMH semis) now right at or testing 50-day MAs.
Outlook for Friday, Nov 14, 2025:
Short-term: Negative
Intermediate & Long-term: Still positive as long as 50-day MAs hold.
Seasonality: Neutral to mildly negative (Nasdaq more negative).
Data calendar uncertain (PPI, retail sales scheduled but may be delayed/missing).
Pivot points for Friday are very wide after Thursday’s big move.
Conclusion:
Thursday’s sell-off broadened beyond the ongoing growth-to-value rotation into a genuine risk-off day with higher conviction volume. The markets are testing a cluster of 50-day moving averages and sentiment is back to extreme fear. While longer-term uptrends are intact and some readings are short-term oversold, the burden of proof is now on the bulls to hold the 50-day MAs and prevent further technical deterioration. Watching closely whether this is just a sharp but digestible pullback or the start of something more serious.