Daily Update Podcast for Wednesday November 12, 2025

Link to The SPX Investing Program https://spxinvesting.substack.com

Link to The Daily Pivot Newsletter: https://thedailypivotnewsletter.substack.com/

Link to Video-Only Immediate Access:
https://spxvideos.substack.com/

Daily Market Update Summary for Tuesday Nov 11, 2025:
Outlook for Wednesday Nov 12, 2025:
Market Action (Tue, Nov 11):
S&P 500: +0.21% (closed just below 6,850/R1). Lower open, chopped around daily pivot (6,815), pushed above unchanged in the afternoon, but light volume (Veterans Day; bond market closed).
Dow: New all-time high (+0.7% est.). Led gains.
Nasdaq: Flat to -0.3%. Mega-caps & semis underperformed; Apple +2.2% (India trade deal boost) was a bright spot.
Broader Market: Defensive tilt. Value outperformed Growth. Small/mid-caps mixed but held better than large-cap growth.
Sectors: Top: Healthcare, Energy, Staples, Real Estate (defensive). Bottom: Tech, Materials. Discretionary +0.25%.
Key News & Context:
Gov’t Shutdown: Senate passed funding bill to Jan 30; House vote expected Wed. Seen as tailwind (rumors over weekend helped sentiment).
Trade: Trump says U.S. nearing India deal which would benefit Apple.
Airlines: Warn of lingering flight delays post-shutdown; Thanksgiving travel risk.
Backlog: Delayed econ reports (revisions pending) → “mess” ahead as data resumes.
Technicals & Breadth:
Trend: Short & intermediate = non-trending. Long-term = positive. Above 20/50/200 SMAs.
Momentum: Mixed → leaning positive. Improving breadth (A/D line, McClellan Osc, % above MAs above 50%).
Sentiment: Daily negative → broader still extreme positive. VIX below 20, falling. Put/Call rising (hedging?).
Gamma: Positive above 6,800; watch 6,763 support.
Hindenburg Omen: Confirmed (Oct signal + multiple follow-up spikes) → on watch, no new spike Tue.
Growth vs. Value: Short-term negative (ratios below MAs). Defensive rotation, not risk-off.
Smart Money: 3 indicators positive. Institutions → neutral risk appetite, high equity allocation but defensive tilt.
Data Points:
NFIB Small Biz Optimism: 98.2 (exp. 98.3, prev. 98.8) → slight drift lower. Labor quality = #1 concern.
Buybacks: Surging authorizations (through Oct) → supportive.
Earnings Growth: 2026 consensus rising (S&P, equal-weight, mid/small caps strong).
Valuations: Shiller CAPE at highs → overvalued but AI “early stage” argument (capex → long-term innovation).
Outlook for Wed, Nov 12, 2025:
Bias: Neutral overall. S&P short-term improving but non-trending; continued mega-cap participation needed.
Calendar: MBA Mortgage Apps; 30-yr bond auction; possible shutdown resolution.
Seasonality: Nov historically strong; post-Oct above 15% YTD → positive year-end bias.
Risks: Delayed econ data, geopolitics, travel chaos.
Levels (S&P):
– Support: 6,815 (pivot), 6,800, 6,763 (gamma flip)
Conclusion:
Defensive rotation persists amid light volume and shutdown resolution optimism. Broader market shows improving breadth, but growth/mega-caps are lagging. Trend = non-trending short/intermediate; long-term positive. Watch for follow-through volume and data resumption.