InterMarket Analysis Update for Monday November 10, 2025

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InterMarket analysis update prepared for Nov 10, 2025:
This video examines S&P valuation, growth vs value, inflation, sectors, correlations, and other markets for directional clues.
Key clue from Friday: potential support in semiconductors and AI-related ETFs at 50-period MAs, with intraday reversals closing well off lows—watch if this carries into the week or fails.
Valuation: S&P overvalued historically (CAPE at 39.67 vs median 16-17) and forward-looking (full S&P 22.2, Mega Cap 8 29.6, both above 20 fair value threshold). Small/mid-caps fairly priced (15.2-15.9) but stagnant; repeated hopes for rotation fade as scenarios shift (e.g., no Dec rate cut). Overvaluation persistent for years, not a timing tool but ongoing context.
Growth vs Value: Long-term offensive (growth outperforming value, ratios above 50/200 MAs). Short-term defensive shift since Aug: value outperforming growth (ratios approach/break below 50 MAs, e.g., S&P growth/value below 50 & nearing 200 MA). Seen in ETFs/indexes; Friday rebound but value still led. Warning if continues—market not as positive as assumed so far in Nov. 2025.
Inflation: No concern. CRB index sideways/choppy (below 50 MA but uptrend); Baltic Dry flat; expectations range-bound. Commodities mixed (aluminum/corn/wheat/lumber downtrends; copper/oil choppy but contained; natural gas up but not extreme). Rolling over into Nov.
Other Markets:
Bitcoin: Weakest; uptrend but repeated weakness risks downtrend/death cross.
Dollar: Downtrend but intermittent strength (near 100, weekly 50/200 MAs nearing golden cross); likes weak dollar for stocks—if strengthens, pressure.
Yen: Downtrend vs dollar (death cross).
Bonds: Flight to safety Friday (prices up, yields down); 10-yr below then back above 50 MA. Total/corporate/junk bonds holding at 50 MAs; riskier vs safer choppy but no death cross yet.
Commodities: Underperforming stocks long-term.
International: US outperforms world long-term; emerging/China/Europe/Japan rolling over on KST.
Sectors (vs S&P): Mixed; tech/mega caps pull back but outperforming long-term (ratios above MAs); materials/comms/energy/financials/industrials/discretionary underperform (below MAs/death crosses); staples/health care/real estate/utilities defensive improvements but lagging longer-term. Transports outperforming the Dow short-term but face resistance/govt shutdown risks.
Correlations/Trends:
Stocks vs bonds: Short-term shift to safety (ratios to 50 MAs); long-term stocks leading.
Advance-decline: Mostly below MAs except S&P rebound.
Breadth: Equal weight holds better than cap-weighted short-term.
Semiconductors: Friday support at 50 MA (daily) & 200 MA weekly (111% above—extreme, watch over 100% as prior tops); outperforming tech long-term but pulled back on Friday.
AI ETFs: Bounced from 50 MA Friday despite down day.
Positive/Negative List (unchanged for months):
Positives: Growth leading long-term, tech/semi outperformance, stocks outperforming bonds/commodities, most indexes above 50/200 MAs intermediate-term.
Negatives: Dollar downtrend (watch strength), Yen downtrend vs dollar.
Warning: Bitcoin weakness.
Bigger picture offensive but short-term defensive hints (value rotation, safety flows, mega cap lag). Friday reversal is positive if sustains follow-thru; Monitor semis/AI at MAs, dollar above 100, growth/value ratios below MAs. Seasonality (Nov strength) not materializing yet; external risks (tariffs SCOTUS ruling, earnings, shutdown).

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1k99cJRF0A7ajwsluO4JJTat1iICNW6FC/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!