S&P 500 Daily Update for Friday October 31, 2025

Link to The SPX Investing Program https://spxinvesting.substack.com

Link to The Daily Pivot Newsletter: https://thedailypivotnewsletter.substack.com/

Link to Video-Only Immediate Access:
https://spxvideos.substack.com/

Summary of Thursday October 30, 2025:
Outlook for Friday October 31, 2025:
Thursday Recap (Oct 30):
S&P 500: –0.99% (closed near the 5,822 level, slightly above S2 on above-average volume.
Intraday Action: Lower open below S1 (5868), brief recovery to 5,875 resistance, then late-day selling.
Mega-Caps Dragged: Meta –11.3%, MSFT –2.9% post-earnings; GOOGL +2.5% only bright spot.
Broader Weakness: Small/mid-caps underperformed; growth/value ratios rolling over.
Big Picture: Short-term positive conviction gone. Intermediate-term extremes worked off. Still above 20/50/200 MAs with the long-term uptrend intact.
Critical Signal:
Confirmed Hindenburg Omen. Triggered Oct 29.
Historical context: Clusters preceded COVID crash (2020) & 2022 bear market.
Macro
10-Yr Yield rose to 4.09%. Rising post-Fed cut is unusual.
Dollar (USD) Strength could be a headwind for stocks.
Sentiment declined to 37 which is a Bearish shift after improving to 42.
Margin Debt is Overextended above the 48-moving average.
Earnings After Close Amazon and Apple.
Technicals:
Short-Term with a Negative bias with CCI-14, Stoch RSI, Williams %R off the list.
Intermediate saw all prior extremes erased.
Long-Term is Positive but still greater than 10% above 200-SMA.
Trend:
ADX below 20 (short & int) so non-trending which favors market-neutral strategies.
Gamma Exposure: Still green.
Sectors:
Real Estate, Financials, Healthcare (defensive) led. Discretionary (–1.5%+), Communication and Tech declined.
Growth vs Value: Growth underperforming short term.
Small Caps: Russell 2000 is testing 50-DMA, Elders Impulse negative.
Smart Money Indicators are now ALL Negative (Short-Term): Accumulation/Distribution, Chaikin Money Flow and Chaikin Oscillator.
McClellan Oscillator (S&P & NYSE) & Swenlin Trading Oscillator negative.
Positive: Parabolic SAR, Vortex, NASDAQ 100 momentum.
Friday Outlook (Oct 31)
Pre-Market: Futures up about 0.75% (AMZN/Apple boost).
Seasonality: Oct 31 neutral/positive (Dow/S&P); Nov 1–15 historically strong.
Economic Calendar: Delayed (gov’t shutdown). Markets focusing on earnings & geopolitics (Trump-Xi talks)
Conclusion:
Short-term positive momentum lost. Hindenburg Omen confirmed.
Long-term uptrend is positive.
Tactical: Lean market-neutral / range-bound (iron condors, calendars)
“Everyone expects a November rally… what if it doesn’t show?”

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LxlIA5Ats4KOWE18wmjDyMNbHechgOsh/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!