Daily Update Podcast for Thursday October 30, 2025

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Market Summary: Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025
Outlook Thursday, Oct 30, 2025
Overall Close (Wednesday)
S&P 500: Virtually unchanged (-0.01% or less than 1 pt), closed at daily pivot (6891).
Dow: Down 0.3%. NASDAQ / NDX: Up, set new all-time highs. Mid/Small Caps: Down (Russell 2000 -0.85%, S&P 600 -1.3%).
Volume: Above average
Fed Decision & Powell Presser (Key Catalyst) Rate Cut: 25 bps with the Fed funds now at 3.75–4.00% (widely expected).
December Cut Odds Plunge: Powell said not a foregone conclusion and the committee has differing views.
Market Reaction: Initial sell-off post-2pm ET with the S&P 500 dipping below S1 (6871), found support near S2 (6850), recovered to flat.
Market Psychology: Had priced in a 90% chance of Dec cut but now recalibrating.
Intraday Price Action (S&P)
Open: Above 6900, Drifted down to 6900. Post-Fed: Fell below pivot S1 near S2 but rebounded to close at pivot (unchanged).
Growth outperforming Value longer term: Growth outperformed on Wednesday; mega-caps/semis held the market afloat.
Sector Performance:
Tech / Semis Strong (+1.5–3%), NVIDIA +3%, SMH +1.5%, new highs, Mega-Cap (Mag7) Mixed, but supportive, NVDA, GOOGL up; MSFT/META flat pre-earnings.
Staples down hard.
Real estate, staples crushed on rate cut doubts.
Financials
-1.7% and 0ngoing underperformance since spring.
Small Caps -1.3%, Rate-sensitive; now range-bound.
Key Earnings (After Close Wed) Microsoft, Meta, Google reported with mixed initial reaction.
Amazon, Apple still to report and will be a major focus.
Technical & Breadth Signals
Still bullish (all timeframes), Above 20/50/200 MAs; Elders Impulse green.
Momentum Positive but waning. StochRSI, CCI charts, Stochastics extreme but possibly rolling over.
Breadth Weakening: AD line declining (price & volume), New lows expanding, percent of stocks above 20/50/100 MA below 50% & falling.
Bullish Percent Index for the S&P turned negative by crossing below the moving average.
Mass Index Reversal signal triggered, Criteria met, watch for confirmation.
Hindenburg Omen Unconfirmed (valid till Nov 7).
VIX Ticked up, still under 20, VVIX rising as volatility of volatility is increasing.
Intermarket & Macro
10-Yr Yield at 4.06% (+6 bps), Back above 4% and rates rising post-cut.
Dollar Index (USD) Upper 90s, range-bound and could pressure stocks if climbs above 100.
Margin Debt Rising with S&P and acting as Speculative fuel
Mortgage Apps +7.1% (refi +9.3%)
Pending Home Sales Flat (vs +1.2% expected).
Thursday Outlook (Oct 30). A higher Open may likely gap above 6900. Watch for Profit-taking on overbought readings. Earnings Strong in Mag7 which could help produce a rally.
No gov’t reports (shutdown).
Technicals
Break above 6900 or a break below 6900.
Seasonality
Oct 30 historically positive since 2002
Post-election year strength expected into Nov
Bottom Line
Bias: Cautiously bullish with trends & momentum still favor bulls.
Risk: Internal weakness building (breadth, BPI, new lows expanding, sector rotation into Value).
Trigger to Watch: Upside: Strong earnings + gap hold above 6900.