The Wire - October 27, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z October 27, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: FUGITIVE SEARCH ENDS IN U.K. AS MISTAKENLY RELEASED DEPORTATION CANDIDATE RECAPTURED. US NAVY LOSES TWO AIRCRAFT IN SOUTH CHINA SEA. VENEZUELA CONTINUES WARTIME PREPARATIONS.//

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-International Events-

South America: Venezuelan forces continue to make plans for an American invasion by hardening infrastructure and deploying defenses as best they can. Over the weekend many Venezuelan citizens have posted their military's movements on social media, at least one of which included the location of a Venezuelan SA-17 GRIZZLY Surface-to-Air Missile Battalion.

Analyst Comment: TikTok and social media in general are the death of OPSEC in any nation, and Venezuela is no exception. Even the Venezuelan military has no real concept of digital security, and even pointing out these OPSEC violations to them directly doesn't really seem to matter much.

Otherwise, American presence patrols continue as before. Some Venezuelans were able to observe what they described as American vessels on the horizon, confirming the US Navy and US Marine Corps continue to conduct operations quite literally just outside Venezuela's territorial waters.

Far East: Over the weekend two US Navy aircraft were lost at sea due to two separate aviation mishaps. One MH-60R Sea Hawk from the USS *Nimitz* was lost at sea while conducting routine operations in the South China Sea. All three crew members survived the crash, and were recovered from the water. About an hour later, one F/A-18F Super Hornet (also assigned to the *Nimitz*) also went down, with both crew members ejecting and being recovered from the water safely.

Analyst Comment: Despite the seeming rarity of two downed aircraft occurring at nearly the same time, these things do indeed happen occasionally. Two aircraft going down due to mishaps within an hour of each other is not exactly a frequent occurrence, but it does happen, especially since the US Navy continues an extremely intense tempto of operations. An investigation will be conducted, to be certain, but at the moment these disasters point to the nature of these types of operations...it's a risky business. As such, it is a sheer miracle that all of those involved survived these incidents, and several investigations are likely to be carried out to determine the causation of these mishaps. Until more information is known, there's no telling what led to the loss of either aircraft.

United Kingdom: Hadush Kebatu was recaptured after a day-long manhunt yesterday. He was able to evade capture for two days, despite not even trying to evade detection. Authorities claim that they are still investigating what allegedly went wrong in order for him to be released by mistake in the first place, but so far no details on this have been released to the public.

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Analyst Comments: So far, the development of the Kebatu case has been host to many concerning details which have inflamed tensions higher than they already are. For instance, he initially tried to return to the detention facility after his release, and remained in the vicinity of the facility for several hours. Eventually detention facility staff escorted him to the train station, and helped him escape. He was given a prepaid card with money, and generally spent the day walking around London on a light shopping spree, in one of the most heavily surveilled cities on Earth. Every few hours the Met released a new video of him milling around, but somehow managed to evade capture for the entire day, completely unaware that a nationwide manhunt was underway for him. In the end, it wasn't even the police that apprehended him...a local citizen spotted him in a public park which resulted in his recapture.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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