Syria Is About To Explode

Close to a year after the overthrow of the regime of former President Bashar al-Assad, the situation in Syria remains far from stable, with the new Islamist-led Interim Government failing to resolve any of the country’s internal conflicts or external challenges.

The situation is especially tense in the southern governorate of al-Suwayda, where clashes between government forces and the Druze National Guard have been taking place along the frontlines in the northern and western countryside on a daily basis.

Government forces began using drones in its attacks in recent days, forcing the National Guard to suspend work at schools in al-Suwayda on October 21. On the same day before, an increase in Israeli aerial activities over the governorate was noted.

Meanwhile in the north and east of the country, de-escalation between the government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) was short lived.

Government forces opened all entrances to the Kurdish Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh neighborhoods in the city of Aleppo on October 22. However, later on the same day, a drone launched by government forces struck a checkpoint of the SDF’s security forces in the town of Dayr Hafir in the eastern countryside of the governorate. The group responded by targeting a bulldozer of government forces with a drone.

The government and the SDF are yet to reach a real agreement on integration. In fact, sides appear to be buying time to prepare for war.

The situation also remains insatiable in the northern governorate of Idlib, the former stronghold of the rebels who overthrew the Assad regime.

On October 22, government forces launched an operation against Firqat al-Ghuraba, a small group of European jihadists led by famous French terrorist Omar Diaby, in the town of Harem in the northern Idlib countryside. In response to the operation, foreign jihadists in Idlib, including Uzbek and Uyghurs, mobilized. The government quickly backed down, halting the operation and initiating talks with Diaby.

In addition to all of this, tensions are brewing along the coast in the western Syria. On October 22, government forces deployed reinforcements along the beach in the governorate of Latakia, amid rumors of a near uprising by Alawite rebels.

The government failure to resolve any of Syria’s internal conflicts, as well as its inability to confront Israel, could soon lead to the renewal of war. Multiple battles could break out simultaneously by the end of the year, at least with the SDF and Druze. An invasion by the Israeli military can’t be also ruled out. In fact, the military announced on October 22 that it had concluded drills mimicking defensive and offensive operations along the front with Syria.

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