Jan van Eck: Q4 Macro & Market Outlook

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When market uncertainty is as high as it is now, I often emphasize that the most useful people to interview are asset managers.

Because they don't have the luxury of merely having an opinion on the road ahead -- they have to commit capital to their convictions, and be judged upon the results.

Today we have the great fortune of having the return appearance of one of the most respected capital allocators in the business: Jan van Eck

Jan is CEO of vanEck, an asset management firm with over $100 billion in assets under management invested across its wide family of ETFs and funds, spanning equity, bond, commodity, digital and regional asset classes.

As we've done the past several quarters now, Jan and I will spend the next hour discussing his Q4 macro and market outlooks, as well as where he sees the biggest opportunities for investors right now.

#goldprice #ai #china

0:00 - Macro Mood: "Happy with Eyes Wide Open"
4:11 - Four Big Global Trends (Fiscal Deficit, AI, India, Deregulation)
5:01 - Quick Macro Summary: Deficit Improving, AI Boosting Mega Caps
7:02 - AI Deep Dive: What's Really Driving Demand?
7:24 - "Crazy Mainframe Math": Exploding Token Demand
9:03 - Explaining Tokens: Units of AI Compute (Not Just Queries)
10:37 - LLMs Reasoning & Software as New Demand Source
12:42 - Hardware Efficiency: Nvidia's 90% Annual Cost Drops
14:28 - Software Efficiency: LLM Costs Plummeting
16:16 - Nvidia's Compute Lockdown Frenzy & Valuation Case
20:23 - Key Watch: Token Demand as AI Pulse
21:16 - AI Value Beyond Nvidia: Consumer Interfaces & Revenue
23:16 - Energy Boom: Nuclear Stocks Up 90%, Oklo x7
24:24 - Rising Electricity Costs: Regressive Impact on Low-Income
25:09 - Energy Demand vs. Efficiency Gains
26:48 - Politics: Post-COVID Sentiment & Pocketbook Pain
27:20 - Victory Lap: Uranium ETF Up 76% Since Last Quarter
28:20 - OpenAI as "MAG8": Fastest User Adoption
29:43 - ChatGPT Traffic Surge vs. Google, YouTube, Meta
34:08 - Shopping Wars: OpenAI + Shopify vs. Amazon
35:41 - Commercial Wins: OpenAI Leads via Microsoft Deal
36:52 - Switching Costs & Why Not Winner-Take-All?
37:21 - MAG7 Earnings Explosion: Straight Line Up
38:19 - Underestimated Compute Shortage Fuels Next 2 Years
39:30 - OpenAI's Revenue Gap: The Real AI Risk
41:32 - Gaming as Emerging AI Winner: Take-Private Signals
43:02 - AI Takeaways: Tokens, OpenAI Financing, Compute Crunch
44:43 - Broader Earnings: Small Caps Could Catch Up in 2026
46:05 - Gold at All-Time Highs: $4,000/Oz Breakdown
48:42 - Inflation Risk: Fed Cuts into Strong Economy?
50:08 - Central Banks: Shift from Treasuries to Gold
52:21 - US Investors: Still Ignoring Gold Despite Surge
54:44 - Gold Pullback Possible: Buy the Dip?
55:45 - Private Credit: Opacity & Recent Defaults
56:55 - Ares Stock Drop & BDC Discounts as "Escape Valve"
59:58 - BDCs Opportunity: Discounts Could Hit 20-25%
1:02:23 - Private Credit Risks: Looser Standards & Contagion?
1:05:23 - Main Topics Recap: AI, Gold, Credit Watches
1:06:02 - Speed Round: Questioning the 60/40 Model
1:07:32 - Bond Returns Reality: Yield Greater Than Appreciation
1:09:21 - Alibaba AI Edge: China's Cheap Electricity Advantage
1:11:45 - Budget Deficit Improves: 5.9% of GDP (Down from 6.4%)
1:14:15 - Celebrating Deficit Wins: Tariffs Offset Spending
1:16:47 - India Update: Structural Reforms Fuel Growth
1:18:33 - Prediction: US-India 15% Tariff Deal Next Month
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