S&P 500 Daily Update for Monday October 20, 2025

Link to The SPX Investing Program https://spxinvesting.substack.com

Link to The Daily Pivot Newsletter: https://thedailypivotnewsletter.substack.com/

Link to Video-Only Immediate Access:
https://spxvideos.substack.com/

Daily Market Update Summary for Friday, October 17, 2025:
Outlook for Monday October 20, 2025:
Market Overview:
The S&P 500 had a choppy but slightly positive day, closing up 0.53% despite negative futures overnight (down about 1.5%) due to U.S.-China trade war concerns.
Prices opened lower but recovered, climbing above the daily pivot at 6644, hitting resistance at 6650, and closing at 6675, slightly off intraday highs.
Weekly performance was positive, with above-average volume partly due to options expiration.
Technical Analysis:
Prices remain below the 20-period moving average (resistance) but above the 50-period moving average (support).
Short-term trend is negative, while intermediate and long-term trends remain positive.
The VIX is above 20 (20.78), indicating a trending but cautious environment. Sentiment is negative but improving (from 23 to 27 on the sentiment indicator).
No significant economic reports due to the ongoing government shutdown; focus remains on U.S.-China trade developments.
Sector and Market Insights:
Regional banks bounced after a weak Thursday but continue to underperform the S&P 500, with concerns about smaller banks.
Defensive sectors including staples and healthcare showed strength, with healthcare and real estate seeing bullish technical signals.
Gold hit an all-time high but pulled back below $4,300, outperforming the S&P 500.
Large-cap growth (e.g., QQQs) remains positive, while small and mid-caps show less conviction.
Key Indicators and Signals:
Mixed signals from smart money indicators (e.g., Chaikin oscillator positive, Chaikin money flow negative).
Negative divergences noted, such as the S&P bullish percent index dropping below 50 and declining TTM Squeeze.
An unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen is active until November 7, with a potential positive Zweig NYC Breath Thrust by October 24.
Seasonality suggests neutral to negative bias for October 20, with a historical tendency for weaker performance post-options expiration.
Economic and Geopolitical Context:
Interest rates rose above 4% (4.01% on the 10-year yield).
The dollar strengthened, potentially pressuring stocks if the trend continues.
Corporate profits are declining slightly when inflation is factored in, while real GDP is rising, showing some divergence.
Buyback authorizations are up 16% year-to-date, viewed positively.
Outlook for Monday, October 20:
Short-term outlook remains negative, with resistance at the 20-period moving average and support at the 50-period moving average.
Key levels to watch: support at 6600 and potential resistance at 6750.
Geopolitical developments, particularly U.S.-China trade talks, and the government shutdown’s impact on economic data.
Earnings season blackout period may influence market dynamics.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is in a short-term negative phase but maintains intermediate and long-term bullish trends. Choppy trading reflects a lack of conviction, with defensive sectors gaining traction and mixed technical signals suggesting caution. Investors should monitor trade war developments, key support/resistance levels, and potential confirmation of technical signals like the Hindenburg Omen or Zweig Breath Thrust.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Ozjf8gWa4Vf9-4Q8PQ2U_ayVxOFU3d2e/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!