The Wire - October 17, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z October 17, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: NARCO SUBMARINE SUNK IN CARIBBEAN. HAMAS FIGHTER ARRESTED IN LOUISIANA. WHITE HOUSE SOFTENS STANCE ON CHINA TRADE WAR.//

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-International Events-

Caribbean: The Pentagon announced the targeting of another vessel off the coast of Venezuela. The footage of the strike has not been released yet, however President Trump stated during a press conference this morning that the strike was not on a fastboat, but rather a semi-submersible craft transporting large amounts of narcotics. This strike is also the first to result in survivors; two individuals were rescued from the water by a US Navy helicopter after the vessel was sunk.

Analyst Comment: The footage of this strike will be interesting to see, it if is ever released. One of the reasons that it hasn't been released yet is possibly due to OPSEC concerns...the Navy probably doesn't want narcotics traffickers to know what their submarines look like when viewed with American sensors.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - Following last week's announcement of a 100% blanket tariff on China, President Trump made slightly contradictory statements yesterday regarding what the general plan is. In follow-on interviews, Trump stated that the tariff is "not sustainable, but that's what the number is", but also responded positively to China overall, stating that things were going well and the meeting with President Xi Jinping in South Korea will continue as planned previously.

Louisiana: This afternoon the FBI announced the arrest of a Hamas fighter that allegedly took part in the October 7th attacks in Israel. Mahmoud Amin Ya’qub al-Muhtadi was arrested in Lafayette after having gained legal entry to the United States in 2024 (though he did lie about his alleged career as a fighter in Gaza in order to get a legal visa fraudulently).

Analyst Comment: This marks the first major arrest by AG Bondi's Joint Task Force 10-7, which was stood up in February with the goal of investigating the Oct 7th attacks.

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Analyst Comments: Of note, another round of "No Kings" protests have been scheduled for tomorrow, October 18th. So far, the event organizers appear to be re-using the same map from last time; most of the protests are carbon-copies of the events that were planned during the first round of protests. This strongly indicates that, like the first time, most of these protests won't happen and the online map is mostly meant to make the movement seem larger than it really is. Even so, while this series of events itself is probably a giant pile of nothing, there are many different social/political groups that are extremely upset right now, and groups in larger cities might use this weekend event as a catalyst for their own desires. ANTIFA will probably break things as usual, and many different senior retirement homes are likely to take part in the events like the first major No Kings protest day. Small arms attacks are likely, if nothing more than from uncoordinated security (such as the Salt Lake City shooting during the initial protests).

Other concerns that could cause more kinetic situations lie in the world of social media and the lack of any cooling of tensions among far-left groups. In a podcast two days ago, former CNN anchor Don Lemon encouraged illegal immigrants to obtain firearms and violently resist ICE deportation operations. Brushing aside the minor detail that it is a felony for illegals to possess firearms due to being criminals, this does highlight the risks moving forward. Like it or not, people do indeed listen to influencers, on the political left and right. When an issue as vitriolic as illegal immigration comes on the scene, the potential is high for lone-wolf attacks to be carried out by some mentally ill individual who listened to the internet. The recent sniper attack on the ICE facility in Dallas is evidence of this, and the countless vehicle ramming attacks carried out by mentally unstable individuals points to the sheer number of people who are interested in carrying out further violence. Right now there are almost zero indicators that this risk will be reduced, and most people encouraging these attacks (as well as those carrying out the attacks themselves) have shown no interest whatsoever in toning things down.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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