The Wire - October 16, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z October 16, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MULTIPLE IED ATTACKS STRIKE ECUADOR AS CONFLICT COMBATING ILLEGAL MINING INTENSIFIES. MIDDLE EAST PEACE DEAL ON UNCERTAIN GROUND AS TENSIONS CONTINUE RISING ON ALL SIDES. VENEZUELAN MILITARY SHIP REPORTEDLY BECOMES GROUNDED DURING TRAINING MISSION.//

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-International Events-

Ecuador: The situation continues to deteriorate following a crackdown initiative targeting illegal mining operations. Many explosions have been reported over the past few days as mining groups affiliated with the Los Lobos cartel have taken to using their mining explosives in order to create IEDs targeting people and critical infrastructure. Two bridges were blown up yesterday in Guayaquil, and a Vehicle-Borne IED (VBIED) was detonated in the same city targeting the city mall. After this blast, another large IED was discovered in a vehicle somewhere in the city, which failed to explode.

Analyst Comment: These IED attacks are the latest in a long series of woes in Ecuador. The situation sharply deteriorated back in 2023 with the assassination of Fernando Villavincencio, a Presidential candidate that was murdered just a few days before he was expected to win the election. This made a bad situation worse and Ecuador spiraled down into a defacto state of civil war, with belligerents mostly being aligned with the Los Choneros cartel and government forces. Over the past few months, prison riots, mass killings via gangs, and now IED blasts have become more common. The connection to why this matters to the US, is that back in 2018 one of the main power-players in Ecuador was the Tren de Aragua criminal syndicate.

Venezuela: Yesterday a Venezuelan naval vessel ran aground off the coast while conducting a training mission. The ARV Capana (an amphibious landing ship) was observed by locals running aground on a sand bar, which resulted in her becoming stuck for a few hours.

Middle East: The situation has remained both tense and chaotic as the return of captives' remains to Israel and various other developments continue to be a sticking point for lasting peace. Hamas officials have stated that there aren't any more remains that they can get to at the moment, which has caused tension.

Analyst Comment: Major offensives remain tabled by both sides for now, however Hamas has conducted many mass-executions of alleged collaborators and/or spies, which has drawn the ire of President Trump who went as far as to threaten direct American intervention in Gaza (comments which he reversed-course on during a later press call). While that possibility is probably more of a knee-jerk threat than anything (after all, Hamas executing their own people for allegedly being spies doesn't really violate the peace agreement itself). Nevertheless, no one is out of the woods yet on this accord, and the situation can certainly flare back up into a big problem once again at the slightest provocation by any party.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - This morning the White House announced that President Trump spoke with President Putin by phone, and that the conversation was very long and productive. Based on the description of the call as posted to President Trump's social media account, the call was positive and resulted in the scheduling of direct talks between the United States and Russia regarding the ending of the war in Ukraine.

Analyst Comment: The implementation of higher-level direct talks with Russia is a positive sign, which has come about after weeks of decreasing relations regarding the war. The implementation of these talks also casts a bit of doubt on President Trump's previous statements regarding pushing Ukraine to conduct more offensives. Lately, there's been a lot of talk on the war by everyone involved, so it's anyone's guess as to whether or not all parties are interested in settling this war, but this will be a situation to monitor closely as talks continue.

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Analyst Comments: As one might expect, Venezuela has not acknowledged the Capana incident, nor are they likely to do so. Due to the nature of the information, at the moment all we have to go on is the standard shaky-cam footage provided by eyewitness observers, along with some aerial footage which does seem to show the vessel sitting lower in the water than she normally would. Considering that embarrassing incidents like this are often played up for effect by Venezuela's adversaries, the reports that the vessel has sunk are probably not true, at least not yet. Nevertheless, this does highlight the high-stakes nature of the fight, should war be the chosen course of action.

As comedic as it sometimes is to see a nation flounder their opportunity to act tough, Venezuela is indeed preparing for war at a breakneck pace. Many coastal roads have been fortified to prepare for amphibious landings, and many border crossings are now impassable due to checkpoints. Clearly Venezuelan naval forces think they have a chance, and various army units have also been featured on local TV stations demonstrating their rapid-deployment capabilities. Most of Venezuela's uniformed armed service branches have been in a constant state of exercise since the American flotilla arrived off the coast, and even though war is still not an absolute certainty, Venezuela is certainly preparing for the worse case scenario.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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