Israel Seeks Re-Esclation

The war in the Gaza Strip appears to be winding down after a deal brokered by the United States, but Israel is preparing to re-escalate.

The first phase of the deal, signed by Israel and Hamas, came into effect on October 10, after the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) withdrew to agreed-upon deployment lines in Gaza. Three days into the ceasefire, on October 13, Hamas released all 20 living hostages. The group also began handing over the bodies of 28 slain hostages.

During this period, Hamas re-emerged in Gaza, deploying fighters from its military wing and security forces to hunt down those who collaborated with the IDF.

By October 13, the group had killed 32 such collaborators in Gaza City and other parts of the Strip and arrested dozens of others. At least seven of those accused of collaborating with Israel were executed in public.

The re-emergence of Hamas provoked Israel, especially that the group has not yet made a commitment to disarm and leave power as required by the second phase of the U.S.-brokered deal.

Defense Minister Israel Katz said on October 15 that he had instructed the IDF to prepare a “comprehensive plan” to defeat Hamas “if it refuses to implement [U.S.] President [Donald] Trump’s plan, and it becomes necessary to resume fighting.”

On the same day, Trump said that the IDF could resume fighting in Gaza “as soon as I say the word” if Hamas won’t uphold the ceasefire deal.

Despite all tensions, the war in Gaza appears to be winding down. The same can’t be said about the Israeli front with Lebanon, however.

As the deal in the Strip entered into effect on October 10, the IDF began escalating against Hezbollah. On October 11, a series of heavy Israeli strikes hit more than ten yards in the southern Lebanese area of Msayleh, where engineering vehicles were stored. Over 300 vehicles were destroyed and a Syrian national was killed. The IDF said that the vehicles were being used by Hezbollah for rebuilding its infrastructure in southern Lebanon.

Later on the same day, the IDF announced that it had targeted an operative of Hezbollah between the towns of Qalaouiyeh and Khirbet Selm in southern Lebanon, claiming that he was involved in restoring the group’s infrastructure.

The strikes were a clear sign that Israel is planning to shift focus to Lebanon once the deal in Gaza is fully implemented.

A renewal of large-scale Israeli military operations in Lebanon is to be expected. Escalation against Syria is also possible as the country is yet to sign a security agreement despite engaging in talks with Israel for several months now.