Democrats' Odds Of Gaining Control Of The House Are Sinking Fast, New Numbers Show

Posted • October 15, 2025: New numbers out of the Kalshi prediction market show a six-month trend in which Democrats' odds of regaining control of the House of Representatives have been steadily and significantly declining. Kalshi is a federally regulated financial exchange and prediction market platform that allows users to buy and sell "event contracts" tied to the outcomes of real-world events. Essentially, a wagering site where you can cash in on predictions of future events. One such event, whether or not Democrats or Republicans will have control of the House after the 2026 midterms, has seen quite a bit of action. The latest action should have Democrats feeling a little uneasy. The resistance party, according to Kalshi, had an 83.8 percent chance of gaining control of the House on April 11th, while the GOP's chance of maintaining control stood at just 16.3 percent. Those were respective highs and lows for each party at the time.

Since then, the downward slope for the Democrats has been pretty pronounced on their charts. As of today, the Democratic odds have dropped to 62.6 percent—a 21.2 percentage point drop. CNN data guru Harry Enten delivered the bad news for the obstructionist party (good news for America) this morning, pointing out that their chances of gaining control of the key chamber of Congress are sinking faster than the Titanic. —— Democrats' chance of taking the House in 2026 have plummeted, while GOP chances have skyrocketed over the last 6 months… Why? 1. Dems aren't keeping up with the pace they set in 2017 on the generic ballot. 2. GOP may be looking at big gains from mid-decade redistricting. —— Simply brutal. Not to mention, this is a significant blow to the narrative that the Trump GOP is headed for disaster in the midterms. Yes, the odds are still in the opposition's favor, but this is a significant downward trend for them. (…)

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https://redstate.com/rusty-weiss/2025/10/15/democrats-odds-of-gaining-control-of-the-house-are-sinking-fast-new-numbers-show-n2195087