The Wire - October 13, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z October 13, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PRESIDENT TRUMP AND OTHER HEADS OF STATE ARRIVE IN EGYPT FOR SIGNING OF PEACE AGREEMENT. COUP IN MADAGASCAR RESULTS IN PRESIDENT FLEEING COUNTRY. AFGHAN/PAKISTAN BORDER CLASHES FLARE UP BRIEFLY. NETHERLANDS ENACTS WARTIME POLICY TO CONTROL CHINESE TECH COMPANY.//

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-International Events-

Europe: Yesterday evening the Dutch government announced that they have taken more direct control of the Nexperia corporation, which was carried out under a rarely-used wartime law. Nexperia is a Chinese-owned semiconductor chip manufacturer, which mostly provides computer chips for consumer-grade electronics. The Dutch government enacted the Availability of Goods Act, which enables the Netherlands to halt actions by the company that are deemed to be against the national defense interests of the nation.

Analyst Comment: This is a big deal as it's yet another indicator of wartime preparations continuing. While most may think that a war with China will just involve the US, and be confined to the Far East, this move highlights the global nature of a potential conflict involving China. This move is not a straight-up seizure of all assets, the company is continuing to produce products as before. This decision is simply to take administrative control of the company, should the board of executives make decisions that are counter to the national security needs of the Netherlands.

Western Asia: A brief war erupted and was concluded between Pakistan and Afghanistan over the weekend. Afghan forces conducted multiple small arms attacks on Pakistani border positions. Pakistan responded in kind by shelling random locations inside Afghanistan. After a few hours, Taliban forces withdrew and Pakistani forces stopped shelling.

Middle East: President Trump arrived in Egypt for the various diplomatic events pertaining to the Gaza peace deal being signed. Various other heads of state from around the region (and Europe) also gathered for the celebratory peace summit.

Analyst Comment: So far only one international incident has been the result of proceedings, with Turkey's Erdogan refusing to take part if Netanyahu was planning to show up as well. Allegedly, a mid-flight phone call was placed by Erdogan's team to pressure Netanyahu to not take part in the event, otherwise Erdogan's plane would turn around and return to Turkey. Netanyahu agreed to this request and has not flown to Egypt to take part in the events. Other than that brief squabble, nothing of note has taken place yet regarding the signing of the peace accord, and the various diplomatic speeches and events have carried on without much conflict.

Africa: The government of Madagascar has collapsed as a general state of unrest reached it's peak over the weekend. President Andry Rajoelina was evacuated from the country by French military forces as rioters compromised the security situation around the Presidential residence.

Analyst Comment: This is the latest nation to fall to the "Zoomer Uprising", a global trend of youth movements rising up to overthrow their respective third-world governments. One of the first to display this trend was the coup in Nepal a few weeks ago, which was carried out largely by the younger elements of the population. In Madagascar, the situation is very similar, with grievances being centered around electricity and water shortages which have gotten worse over the past few years.

-HomeFront-

Oregon: Over the weekend counter-ICE protests and demonstrations continued, with a few old tactics being implemented. Namely, nudity. A city-wide naked bike ride and "die in" protest was arranged yesterday, which disrupted traffic for a few hours on major roads, as well as outside the ICE facility.

California: Concerns of election fraud have come to light following the receipt of mail-in ballots regarding the Proposition 50 redistricting vote. Voters in some districts have observed that if a person votes "NO" (as in, votes against the redistricting efforts), and inserts their paper ballot into the envelope a certain way, their vote can be seen from the outside via a hole that is punched in the envelope. This has led many to believe that this is a very convenient way to physically destroy (or just not count) ballots which can easily be identified en masse as counter to the intended electoral outcome.

Similarly, Governor Newsom signed SB 79 today, which allows rezoning of certain areas near public transportation hubs to allow for high-density housing. This bill works in conjunction with SB 529 (passed earlier this summer), which allowed the government of California to purchase the properties that were destroyed as a result of the Palisades Fire.

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Analyst Comments: The spat between Afghanistan and Pakistan was the classic style of war that is commonly undertaken in the region. Enormous troop movement to border checkpoints, by which both sides shoot at each other at well-beyond the maximum effective range of their weapons. After a few hours of shooting randomly in each other's general direction, both sides back off and declare victory. Casualty figures vary, with both sides claiming hundreds of enemy KIA, however right now it's not clear as to how many casualties actually occurred. As to whether or not this will escalate into a more widespread conflict, at the moment this appears unlikely. The Taliban had to do something to save face from Pakistan bombing Kabul, and shooting up border checkpoints is a very common way the Taliban has responded to such in the past. The Taliban has no real way of projecting power beyond their own borders (their main way of doing such is via small-scale terrorist cells slipping over the mountains and into Pakistan), so the ball is in Pakistan's court if they want to escalate the situation.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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