Deep Dive Update for Monday October 13, 2025

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The weekly "Deep Dive" video update for Monday, October 13, 2025, analyzes various financial charts to assess market trends following a significant market drop on Friday.
Key points include:
Long-Term VIX (Volatility Index): The Daily VIX closed above 20 on Friday’s daily chart, a level not seen recently, indicating increased volatility. The Long-Term chart shows a slight uptick but remains in a lower range (below 20). Momentum indicators for the VIX have been stagnant, offering little insight.
Ulcer Index: Rising but not yet above the moving average, so not currently featured in daily videos. It would be highlighted if it crosses the red line.
Skew Index: Below the critical red area, suggesting no imminent large market moves, so not shown in daily updates.
Large Caps vs. Small Caps Ratio: Sideways movement despite Friday’s decline. Small caps were hit harder, but the ratio shows no significant change.
Advance-Decline Ratio: Dropped below zero, indicating negative short-term momentum based on both price and volume.
Momentum Stocks: Holding up better during the downturn but still within a range, not breaking out when compared to the S&P.
U.S. vs. International Stocks: Range-bound, with no clear directional trend.
Technical Alerts: Mixed signals during the week, with Friday showing widespread declines (red across indicators). Gold surpassed $4,000/oz, while news of a potential U.S.-China trade war escalation contributed to the market drop.
Index Rankings: NASDAQ leads with an 88.1 technical score, followed by NASDAQ 100 (85.6), small caps, S&P (74.5), Dow (48.8), and mid-caps (37.5, weakest). Mid-cap growth-to-value ratio remains strong but lacks follow-through at the index level.
Rainbow Charts: Short-term rainbow turned negative after breaking below the 20-period moving average. Intermediate-term remains positive, just above the 50-period moving average, with potential support levels converging.
Momentum Oscillator & Bollinger Bands: No extreme readings yet. The market dropped from hugging the upper Bollinger Band but hasn’t reached the lower band.
TTM Squeeze (Monthly): Shows negative divergence, with the S&P rising while the indicator declines, a warning sign, though not official until month-end.
S&P vs. DAX Correlation: Dropped to neutral, suggesting a weakening relationship between U.S. and German stocks.
Sector Ratios: Growth-to-value, discretionary-to-staples, and tech-to-utilities ratios are declining, signaling caution. Biotech-to-healthcare remains solid, but hotels-to-utilities shows significant weakness.
Bellwethers: Semiconductors are near highs, but homebuilders, transports, retail, and regional banks show weakness.
Bonds and Yields: U.S. 10-year yield dropping, with bonds and stocks moving inversely on Friday. Emerging markets outperforming developed markets, setting new highs in the EEM ETF.
Market Outlook: Friday’s decline raises concerns, with indicators showing mixed signals. Support levels (e.g., 50-period moving average) are being tested. It’s unclear if this is a precursor to a larger decline or a temporary dip, as seen in prior recoveries from the April lows.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1OHtAoM0PPRuSGYcisPVQEO28jFuYNpWE/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!