Housing Market Now Falling Into A Deflationary Vortex | Reventure Consulting's Nick Gerli

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The housing market remains in an injured state, with transactions still frozen and an increasing number of states seeing falling prices.

But...the Federal Reserve has resumed rate cuts and mortgage rates are lower than at the start of the year.

So, will we start to see some healing in the housing market as we head into 2026?

Or will things get worse from here?

Today we have the good fortune to be joined by Nick Gerli, founder of reventure Consulting and creator of the excellent reventure app.

Nick walks through his latest --- and increasingly pessimistic -- outlook on the US housing market and shares a number of charts with us.

#homeprices #housingmarket #realestate

0:00 - High-Level Summary: Disinflationary Vortex
2:07 - Growing Pessimism: Rental Market Downturn
3:18 - Affordability Crisis in For-Sale & Rental Markets
4:52 - Immigration's Impact on Rentals & Housing
6:55 - Work Permit Applications Plummet
8:26 - Single-Family Rent Growth Hits 14-Year Low
9:41 - Disinflation Argument: Shelter's Role in CPI
11:37 - Key Inflations for Housing: Rents & Wages Only
13:36 - Wage Growth Moderating Post-Great Resignation
15:00 - Home Prices vs. Income: Bubble Territory
16:22 - Home Price Declines Spread to Half of U.S. States
18:14 - Local Variations: Micro-Level Analysis
19:48 - Examples: Crashes in Houston & Tampa Zip Codes
21:24 - National Map: Contagion of Price Declines
23:10 - Wealth Effect: Affluent Buyers vs. Broader Market
25:42 - Average Home Buyer Age Now 56
27:53 - Stock Market Correction's Potential Housing Impact
31:26 - Inventory Drives Prices: State-by-State Breakdown
35:32 - National Inventory Trends & 2026 Forecast
37:18 - Mortgage Rate Distribution: Unlocking Supply
40:36 - Lower Rates Could Boost Inventory, Not Prices
42:39 - Homebuilders Cutting Prices to Move Inventory
45:12 - New Homes Now Cheaper Than Existing Ones
47:54 - Softening Labor Market Adds Downward Pressure
50:53 - Buyer Demand at 30-Year Lows
53:12 - Unemployment's Direct Link to Defaults
55:22 - Forbearance Programs Distorting Foreclosures
57:47 - Student Loan Repayments Fueling Delinquencies
1:00:33 - Parting Advice: Buyers, Sellers & Investors
1:02:55 - Where to Follow Nick Gerli & Reventure App
1:04:12 - Conference Reminder & Financial Advice
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