Daily Update Podcast for Monday October 13, 2025

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Market Update Summary for Friday, October 10, 2025:
Outlook for Monday October 13, 2025:
Market Performance:
The S&P 500 experienced significant technical damage, closing down 2.71% on above-average volume.
The S&P 500 opened higher, reaching an intraday all-time high at the 6761 level, but news of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions triggered a sharp decline, closing near the intraday low at the 6550 level.
The S&P 500 fell below key support levels (S1: 6713, S2: 6690, S3: 6642, S4: 6593) and the 20-period moving averages, signaling a negative short-term trend.
The intermediate-term trend remains positive, as the S&P 500 is still above the 50-period moving averages, but it’s showing signs of weakness. The long-term trend is still positive.
Key Drivers:
Trade tensions escalated after President Trump announced potential massive tariffs on Chinese imports, citing China’s tightened export controls on rare earth materials. This news caught the market off guard, leading to a wave of selling.
The VIX (volatility index) surged above 20, indicating rising fear in the market. Short-term indicators such as the Stochastics, StochRSI and Williams %R turned extremely negative, with the VIX’s RSI above 70, signaling potential oversold conditions.
Bond prices rose, pushing the 10-year yield down to 4.05%, reflecting a flight to safety. The dollar had minimal impact during the session.
Sector and Index Performance:
Most sectors declined, with technology (-4%), discretionary (-2.75%), and communication (-1.84%) hit hardest. Staples were the only sector to close slightly positive.
Large caps, mid-caps, and small caps all saw declines, with small caps down over 3%. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 also dropped significantly, with key stocks such as Nvidia (-4.89%), Tesla (-5%), and Amazon (-4.95%) leading losses.
The Dow fell to its 50-day moving average, with pivot points and moving averages aligning as potential support levels across indices.
Technical Indicators:
Short-term indicators (Stochastic RSI, Williams %R, CCI) are extremely negative, with the market below the 20-period moving average and the Parabolic SAR turning bearish.
Intermediate-term indicators are showing early signs of weakness, with Connors RSI and PMO studies rolling over. Long-term indicators such as accumulation distribution remain long-term positive.
Advance-decline lines and bullish percent indexes are declining but still above critical thresholds, suggesting the longer-term uptrend is intact for now.
Sentiment and Other Data:
Consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan came in at 55, slightly above expectations (54.5) but down from last year’s 70.5.
Sentiment dropped sharply to 29 from 49, reflecting a bearish shift. The ADX indicates a weakening trend, with the red line crossing above the green line.
Gold is in overbought territory (14-day RSI), while oil prices fell to the $58 range.
Outlook for Monday, October 13, 2025:
The bond market will be closed for Columbus Day, potentially affecting trading volume. No major economic reports are expected due to the ongoing government shutdown, though Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Tuesday and potential CPI data on Wednesday could influence markets later in the week.
Options expiration week historically leans positive (up 73% of the time since 1980), but October 13 specifically shows neutral to negative seasonality since 2002.
Key support levels (50-day moving average, pivot points) across the S&P, Dow, NASDAQ, and other indices will be critical. A break below could signal further declines, while a bounce could stabilize the market.
Geopolitical developments, particularly U.S.-China trade news, will likely drive market direction.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is negative in the short term, with significant technical damage and heightened volatility. While intermediate and long-term trends remain positive, support levels around the 50-day moving averages and pivot points will be crucial. Investors should monitor trade war developments and key technical levels for signs of a bounce or further weakness.