Daily Update Podcast for Friday October 10, 2025

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Market Update Summary for Thursday, October 9, 2025:
Outlook for Friday, October 10, 2025:
Thursday Recap:
Market Performance: The S&P 500 hit an intraday all-time high at the 6780 level but closed lower, down 0.28%, with no significant technical damage. Growth stocks outperformed value stocks, improving growth-to-value ratios despite the down day.
Key Levels: The market fell below the daily pivot (6742) and S1 (6729), finding support at 6720. Late-day buying pushed it back above S1 by close.
Volume: Below-average volume on both Wednesday (up day) and Thursday (down day), partly due to the ongoing government shutdown limiting economic data.
Moving Averages: The S&P remains above the 20, 50, and 200-period moving averages, indicating an intact uptrend.
Dollar and Rates: The U.S. dollar showed strength but remains in a longer-term downtrend. The 10-year yield rose slightly to 4.15% from 4.13%.
Gold: Dropped below $4,000, likely due to profit-taking, but still holding up.
Sentiment: Neutral, trending slightly negative, with some fear indicators (e.g., VIX-to-S&P correlation) rising, though the VIX itself remained stable.
Geopolitical Impact: The market largely ignored the initial peace deal between Israel and Hamas, and other global events.
Sectors and Stocks: Staples outperformed, while tech, industrials, and communication lagged. Notable stock movements included Amazon (+2.5%), Meta (+2%), Nvidia (+1.83%, new high), and Apple (-1.5%).
Internal Indicators:
Growth-to-value ratios improved, especially for large and mid-caps.
Short-term momentum weakened but remains positive (e.g., Williams %R, CCI 20).
Negative signals from the S&P McClellan Oscillator, bullish percent index, and smart money indicators (e.g., Chaikin Money Flow).
Long-term indicators, like the 10-day average of highs and lows, showing internal strength.
Friday Outlook:
Market Bias: Remains positive, supported above 6700 and the 20-period moving average. A further decline could challenge this support and shift sentiment.
Key Indicators to Watch:
Continued dollar strength could pressure stocks if it breaks above 100.
Consumer sentiment data (from the University of Michigan) expected, but treasury budget data unlikely due to the shutdown.
Seasonality is neutral to slightly negative for the Dow and S&P, neutral to positive for the NASDAQ.
Potential Risks: Overextension above the 200-day moving average (11.39%) and underperformance of financials relative to the S&P could signal future concerns.
Positive Factors: Improved growth-to-value ratios, late-day buying, and longer-term positive trends (e.g., Landry Light, Proper Order) support optimism.
Geopolitical Note: President Trump’s Middle East trip may introduce unease, but the market has been resilient to geopolitical news.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 remains in a positive trend with no major breakdowns, though short-term weakness and mixed signals warrant caution. Monitor 6700 support, dollar movements, and consumer sentiment for Friday’s direction.