The Wire - October 9, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z October 9, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PEACE DEAL ALLEGEDLY SETTLED IN MIDDLE EAST. PAKISTAN BLAMED FOR KABUL AIRSTRIKES. NATIONAL GUARD PRESENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN CHICAGO.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Afghanistan: This afternoon multiple explosions were reported in downtown Kabul as Pakistan carried out airstrikes in the capitol city.

Analyst Comment: So far, Pakistan has not confirmed the strikes, however tensions between the two nations have been rapidly deteriorating for several months. The two were hosting diplomatic talks as recently as today regarding the suppressing of terrorist activity, which has been making it's way from Afghanistan, through the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and into Pakistan proper. These talks failed after Pakistan was not convinced the Taliban was serious about internally policing their own people with regards to counterterrorism.

-HomeFront-

USA: Early this morning a large-scale Verizon outage was reported around the country. The outage lasted about an hour, and no cause for the outage has been disclosed by Verizon.

Illinois: National Guard deployments to Chicago have continued to trickle in over the past few days. A total of roughly 500 soldiers are now deployed in static defense roles to provide security for federal buildings. The ICE detention facility in Broadview (the site that has been a major target for riots) has also been reinforced and fortified more over the past few weeks.

Washington D.C. - Yesterday evening the White House announced that both Hamas and Israel have signed the peace agreement as proposed by President Trump. The deal now moves through various phases involving hostage release/prisoner swaps and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. In a televised address, Khalil al-Hayya (the highest-ranking Hamas leader that is still alive) declared an end to the war.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Anytime a tenuous "peace" is agreed to in the Middle East, a general state of uneasiness follows forthrightly. Of course, years of war coming to an alleged end is a positive outcome for the stability of the region, but one must take care to not count the chickens before the eggs are hatched. Despite the overall tone among many being the welcoming of peace, there are still many on both sides (especially those who aren't actually in the warzone) who do not want peace. Many different malign actors seek to capitalize on both genuine and false-flag attacks around the world, so keeping one's head on a swivel in the homeland would be wise as the ceasefire goes into effect. Whether this cessation of hostilities will hold is anyone's guess, but as of right now the war is officially over. This afternoon the White House stated President Trump's intent to travel to the Middle East this weekend, where he is expected to take part in ceremonies of the peace agreement's final stages, as well as to participate in various festivities surrounding the return of any prisoners to Israel.

In the United States, additional concerns to be mindful of are how this alleged peace will impact protest seasons. In short, when one front closes, resources can be shifted to other lines of effort. Since the war began, various pro-Palestine demonstrators have been occupied with their demonstrations and protests have been fairly routine in many American cities. If this peace holds, those same individuals will probably have more time to shift to the latest cause to rally against...ICE operations. This is not to say that the more kinetic and disruptive pro-Palestine demonstrations will stop (they certainly won't), but right now in the US this is a major cause to rally around for many. Similarly, if the peace deal does not hold, these demonstrations will probably shift into being kinetic again, just as these efforts were during the height of the war.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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