Daily Update Podcast for Wednesday October 8,2025

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Market Summary for Tuesday, October 7, 2025:
Outlook for Wednesday, October 8, 2025:
Tuesday Recap:
Gold Milestone: Gold surpassed $4,000 for the first time ever.
S&P 500 Pullback: The S&P 500 experienced a minor decline of 0.38%, giving back Monday’s gains, resulting in a slight weekly loss, so far. The S&P 500 opened higher, reaching an intraday all-time high at 6754 (R1 pivot), but fell below the daily pivot (6736), S1 (6722), and briefly S2 (6704), finding support at 6700. The session ended with sideways trading and below-average volume, suggesting normal profit-taking.
Technical Observations: No significant technical damage occurred, with the market remaining above 20-period moving averages. Momentum indicators (e.g., CCI, StochRSI) weakened slightly but are positive. The Aroon indicator showed increased buying pressure despite the down day.
Sector Performance: Broad-based declines, with mega-caps tech, and small caps underperforming. Defensive sectors such as staples, utilities, and financials held up better.
Economic Data: Consumer credit rose by only $0.4 billion (vs. $13.1 billion expected), indicating economic caution. The trade balance report was delayed due to the government shutdown.
Other Factors: Interest rates dipped (10-year yield at 4.13% from 4.16%), supporting stocks. The dollar moved upward, potentially pressuring equities. Geopolitical issues (Middle East, Russia-Ukraine) and the government shutdown had minimal market impact.
Sentiment and Trends: Sentiment dropped to neutral (53 from 57). The S&P 500 has showed mixed momentum with signs of rotation to defensive sectors since August. AI-driven stocks and the "Magnificent Seven" continued to drive earnings growth, while small caps remained volatile.
Wednesday Outlook:
Key Events: The release of Fed meeting minutes (2 p.m. Eastern) is uncertain due to the government shutdown. MBA Mortgage Applications Index is expected, but initial/continuing claims data on Thursday may be delayed.
Market Outlook: The S&P 500 remains above support, with a positive long-term trend but neutral-to-negative short-term bias. Pivot points for Wednesday will be key to watch. Seasonally, early October is strong, but the next few sessions may trend weaker.
Indicators to Monitor: Declining momentum oscillators, a negative short-term bias in some smart money indicators (e.g., Chaiken Money Flow & Oscillator), and the growth-to-value ratio remaining below the 50-day moving average suggest caution. However, the S&P 500 remains over 10% above the 200-day moving average, indicating an intact but possibly overextended uptrend.
Focus Areas: Continued strength in AI and tech, gold’s rally, and defensive sector performance. Earnings blackout periods and upcoming earnings reports may add pressure.
Conclusion:
Tuesday’s pullback was minor, with no major technical damage. The S&P 500 remains in a long-term uptrend but shows short-term weakness. Wednesday’s Fed minutes, if released, could influence sentiment. Investors should monitor support levels and pivot points for signs of further consolidation or recovery.