Weekly Update for October 6-10, 2025

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Market Summary for September 29th - October 3rd, 2025
Market Performance: The markets saw modest gains with the Dow up 1.1%, NASDAQ up 1.3%, S&P 500 up 1.09%, and small caps leading at 1.7%. Major indices hit all-time highs, though mid-caps lagged.
Government Shutdown: Ongoing but currently not significantly impacting the markets.
Federal Reserve Expectations: Markets anticipate rate cuts due to weaker-than-expected economic data, not an economic collapse. No recession is expected, and earnings remain solid, supporting stock prices.
Economic Data: Mixed reports reinforced dovish Fed expectations. No employment report or weekly jobless claims due to the shutdown.
Interest Rates: The 10-year yield dropped to 4.12%, supporting stock gains. Inflation concerns remain low.
Earnings Season: Approaching with cautious optimism. Tesla’s earnings disappointed due to future tax credit concerns, causing a stock drop despite a strong report.
Sector Performance: Healthcare surged 6.8% (boosted by "TrumpRx"), utilities up 2.4% (driven by AI and crypto energy demands), tech up 2.3% (Nvidia hit highs), and energy declined due to increased OPEC+ production.
Technical Indicators: Positive across short, intermediate, and long-term charts. A strengthening trend is emerging, though not fully confirmed. Volume outperforming price, indicating steady buying interest.
Sentiment: Moderately bullish but not overly exuberant, suggesting room for further gains. VIX slightly up but below 20, showing low fear.
Geopolitical Factors: Middle East, Russia-Ukraine, and domestic issues noted but not currently impacting the markets significantly.
Other Assets: Gold up 48.63% year-to-date, outperforming stocks. The U.S. dollar weakened, supporting stocks, bonds, gold, and silver. Oil fell to the $60 range, and copper showed economic optimism.
Looking Ahead (October 6th - 10th): Positive seasonality for early October, with historical data suggesting gains. Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday may provide clarity on rate cut expectations (market predicts a 25-basis-point cut to 3.75%-4% on October 29th).
Conclusion: The markets remain resilient with a positive outlook, driven by dovish Fed expectations, solid earnings, and low inflation concerns. Investors should monitor earnings season and geopolitical developments, but technicals and sentiment suggest potential for further gains.

PDF of Slides:
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!