Can The Rally In Stocks Continue Into Year End? | Lance Roberts

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At this point, the stock market is being driven nearly entirely by sentiment and momentum.

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks the odds are good that will continue as the allure of S&P 7,000 entices investors to keep buying dips through the remainder of the year.

He and I discuss the technical reasons for this, as well as the impact of the government shutdown, the latest disappointing ADP jobs report, bonds and Lance's firm's recent trades.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

#bullmarket #jobsreport #shutdown

0:00 - Shutdown's Impact on Data and Markets
2:06 - Historical Market Performance During Shutdowns
3:00 - Debunking Shutdown Myths: What Gets Paid
3:28 - Mandatory vs. Discretionary Spending Explained
4:46 - Potential for Deeper Cuts This Time
5:48 - Non-Essential Workers: Time to Trim Government?
6:28 - Shutdown History and Brinkmanship
7:19 - Firing Government Employees: Challenges and Lawsuits
8:47 - ADP and Paychex: Weak Job Signals
9:51 - BLS Revisions and Correlation Breakdown
10:19 - Flaws in Surveys and Birth-Death Model
11:24 - Simpler Employment Metrics: 12-Month Average
12:25 - Shutdown's Negligible Market Impact
13:01 - Chart: Shutdowns vs. Market Trends
14:00 - Crosscurrents: Strong GDP vs. Weak Jobs
16:32 - Market at All-Time Highs: Raise Year-End Target?
18:10 - Momentum Drivers: Buybacks and Rebalancing
19:08 - Seasonal Weakness: October Volatility
19:45 - Five Straight Up Months: Correction Ahead?
20:23 - Thematic Models
21:59 - April Lows Reset: Swift Buying Since
23:14 - Hope Framework: Goldilocks Economy Ahead?
24:08 - Broadening Growth, Lower Inflation, Rates
25:24 - Jobs Weakening Just Right for Fed Cuts
26:10 - Low Oil Prices as Tailwind
26:27 - 2026 Outlook: Better Growth, Market Recovery
27:30 - Wall Street Consensus: Earnings Shift to S&P 493
28:36 - Why 493 Earnings Lag Despite Growth?
29:15 - AI Capex Ripple: $3T to $15T Activity?
29:50 - Risk of Disappointing Expectations
31:46 - Stronger Dollar: Headwind for Multinationals
33:10 - Dollar Rally: 90% Probability Next 12-18 Months
33:46 - Consensus Short Dollar: Contrarian Setup
35:04 - Gold Correlation: Prepare for Headwinds
35:38 - Policy Tailwinds: Deregulation Boost?
36:36 - Modest Growth: 2-2.5%, Not Gangbusters
38:08 - Debt/Deficits Impede: No Return to Goldilocks?
39:42 - Valuations Matter Long-Term: Ford PE Highs
40:49 - Three 20% Years: Momentum Until Break
42:12 - Irrational Exuberance Echoes: Late 90s Parallels
43:42 - Earnings Projections: Highest Deviation Ever
44:01 - Bigger Runup, Bigger Correction?
44:19 - 1996-99 Similarities: Bubble Inflation Tactics
50:46 - AI Bubble Calls: Round-Tripping Capital
51:55 - Emperor's New Clothes: Revenue Reality Check
53:47 - Sentiment Drives: Don't Miss the Ride
54:46 - Timing Corrections: Focus on Flows
56:02 - Advice: Work with a Financial Adviser
56:53 - FOMO vs. Fear: Squeezed Investor Dilemma
58:36 - Onboarding Strategy: Half In, Dollar Cost Average
1:00:04 - March Example: Half Positions Hedge Decline
1:01:22 - Seasonal Strength: Buy in Six Parts
1:03:00 - Managing Risk: Rebalance, Take Profits
1:04:23 - Bonds: Yields Tracking to 2.5% Long-Term
1:05:36 - CPI Shelter Lag: Dramatic Drop Next Year
1:06:53 - Stephen Moran: Lower Rates Ahead
1:08:35 - Tariffs Minor: Rent Drives Inflation Down
1:10:40 - Trades Update: Rebalanced Models, Added Meta
1:11:58 - Rant: Speaking the Unspoken
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