AUC3I Daily Briefing 09-30-2025 On the WAR in Ukraine

Combat Briefing Number 1315

"From:" Colonel A.C. Oguntoye, Infantry Officer
"Date:" September 30, 2025
"Subject:" Progress of the Special Military Operation

### Situation Overview

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (AFRF) continued sustained offensive operations along six axes, combining maneuver warfare with precision strikes against Ukrainian logistics and infrastructure. Russian troop groups liberated two settlements—"Kirovsk" and "Severksy Maly"—while advancing positions across Donetsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. Ukrainian forces sustained heavy personnel and materiel losses, including degradation of electronic warfare (EW) systems and ammunition storage nodes.

### Northern Sector (Sumy & Kharkiv)

The "North Group" inflicted losses on two mechanized brigades, a ranger brigade, an assault regiment, and a territorial defense brigade across Pavlovka, Varachino, Novaya Sech, Kondratovka, and Andreevka. In Kharkiv, engagements near Volchansk and Bochkovo resulted in over "180 Ukrainian casualties", destruction of one armored vehicle, 10 cars, an artillery piece, and four depots.
"Implication:" Persistent cross-border engagements force Ukraine to divert reserves, disrupting regional stability and stretching defensive capacity.

### Western Sector (Donetsk & Kharkiv)

The "West Group" liberated "Kirovsk" in the DPR, while striking Kupyansk, Petropavlovka, Sadovoe, and Yampol. Ukrainian losses exceeded "250 personnel", a tank, two armored vehicles, 23 cars, two artillery guns, four EW stations, and nine depots.
"Implication:" The seizure of Kirovsk provides a foothold for deeper operations and highlights Russia’s deliberate dismantling of Ukrainian artillery and EW capabilities.

### Southern Sector (Donetsk People’s Republic)

The "South Group" liberated "Severksy Maly", striking formations near Ivanopolye, Pleshcheevka, Aleksandro-Kalinovo, Berestok, and Stepanovka. Ukrainian forces lost "245 troops", three armored vehicles, 13 cars, eight artillery guns, and five depots.
"Implication:" Losses in artillery and supply infrastructure weaken Ukraine’s ability to maintain continuous fire support in Donetsk, setting conditions for Russian tactical consolidation.

### Central Sector (Donetsk People’s Republic)

The "Center Group" secured stronger positions near Belitskoye, Annovka, Rubizhne, and Hrishino. Ukrainian losses were the highest—"540 personnel", four armored vehicles, eight cars, and a self-propelled artillery installation.
"Implication:" Massed Russian firepower and combined-arms maneuver achieved local superiority, signaling potential preparation for breakthrough operations against overstretched Ukrainian defenses.

### Eastern Sector (Dnipropetrovsk & Zaporizhzhia)

The "East Group" advanced around Alekseevka, Velikomikhaylovka, Pokrovske, and Horke, inflicting "320 casualties", destroying one armored vehicle, 12 cars, three artillery guns, and an EW station.
"Implication:" Steady advances erode Ukraine’s defensive depth in Zaporizhzhia, threatening a gradual unraveling of fortified belts.

### Dnipro Sector (Zaporizhzhia & Kherson)

The "Dnieper Group" struck Malaya Tokmachka, Lvovo, and Belozerka, destroying "65 Ukrainian personnel", a combat vehicle, six cars, seven EW stations, and one depot.
"Implication:" Destruction of seven EW stations is notable, crippling Ukraine’s ability to coordinate fire and drone operations across the river corridor.

### Deep Strikes & Air Defense

Operational-tactical aviation and missile forces hit 154 targets, including railway transport infrastructure, long-range UAV storage/launch sites, and mercenary concentrations. Air defense intercepted "two Neptune missiles" and "128 UAVs", maintaining layered defense effectiveness.

### Operational Analysis & Implications

The September 30 operations underscore AFRF’s dual strategy: "territorial consolidation through selective settlement liberation" and "systematic attrition of Ukrainian logistics, artillery, and EW capacity." Ukrainian casualties exceeded "1,600 in one day", with significant losses in depots and EW assets.

The liberation of Kirovsk and Severksy Maly reinforces Russia’s foothold in Donetsk, while the high Ukrainian losses in the Central sector suggest potential encirclement operations ahead. The destruction of seven EW stations in the Dnipro front is particularly damaging, further limiting Ukraine’s ability to integrate drone and artillery coordination.

Strategically, Russian forces are shaping conditions for wider operational breakthroughs by exhausting Ukraine’s ability to regenerate combat power. The cumulative impact is a steady erosion of Ukrainian capacity to sustain prolonged defensive operations, with broader implications for regional momentum.

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