Name: Thematic Investing in an Age of Global Entropy | Marvin Barth
Uploaded: 2025-09-30T21:30:00+00:00
Duration: 50 min 49 s
Description: In Episode 437 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Marvin Barth, founder of Thematic Markets and former Chief Economist for International Affairs at the U.S. Treasury, who previously served

5 days ago

Podcasts

In Episode 437 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Marvin Barth, founder of Thematic Markets and former Chief Economist for International Affairs at the U.S. Treasury, who previously served at the Federal Reserve and the Bank for International Settlements and has led global macro and FX strategy on both the sell side and the buy side.

Marvin Barth and Demetri spend the first hour of their conversation unpacking his concepts of “localization,” “being is believing,” and “global entropy,” and how these thematic frameworks can help us understand changes in growth, inflation expectations, interest rates, the underperformance of emerging markets, the limits of monetary policy, and the weakening of American soft and hard power.

The second hour begins with a conversation about the three pillars of Western primacy—mythology, economic dominance, and military superiority—and why Marvin believes that each of these has already peaked. They discuss how rivals to America’s Post-World War II Liberal Order have used asymmetric warfare to thwart the West’s dominance and are now in position to offer something radically different—a new sociopolitical and economic model that can rival Western capitalism and democracy.

The two also explore scenarios ranging from a rapid dissolution of the global system to the managed emergence of a new bipolar order with two sets of economic and political ideologies, supply networks, and technological standards. This includes a broad discussion about portfolio construction, the role of the dollar, and how the broad international adoption of stablecoins could prove to be one of the most consequential stories of the coming decades.

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00:00 Introduction
03:46 Marvin's Background and Career Journey
09:31 Thematic Approach to Markets
10:12 Localization vs. Deglobalization
23:27 Impact of Localization on Emerging Markets
25:37 Rebuilding Capital and Interest Rates
26:14 COVID's Impact on Localization and Inflation
27:23 The Concept of 'Being is Believing'
29:37 Hyperinflation and Belief Systems
31:58 The Myth of the Post-World War II Order
35:22 The Erosion of Western Myths
39:48 US Economic Policies and Global Impact
41:34 China's Rise and WTO Admission
43:07 Military Power and Technological Advancements
45:43 Asymmetric Warfare and US Military Challenges
46:17 China's Military Strategy and Regional Dominance
47:53 Topics for the Second Hour