Name: Investing in a World of Permanent Stimulus | Vincent Deluard
Uploaded: 2025-09-28T17:44:10+00:00
Duration: 58 min 26 s
Description: In Episode 432 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX Group, where he advises large institutional investors on asset allocation, eco

25 days ago

Finance & Crypto

In Episode 432 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX Group, where he advises large institutional investors on asset allocation, economic forecasting, and quantitative modeling informed by historical patterns and structural economic analysis.

Vincent Deluard and Demetri spend the first hour of their conversation exploring Deluard’s macroeconomic framework and the key structural forces that he believes are shaping the emergence of a new macro regime of fiscal dominance, including shifting demographics, politically driven inflation, geopolitical fragmentation, and the decline of institutional trust. The two discuss his provocative thesis that recessions have been "canceled," examining the structural and technological forces that Vincent believes are reducing economic cyclicality and reshaping the role of monetary and fiscal policy.

In the second hour, Vincent Deluard delves much deeper into his specific investment theses, including his call for an Asia "reverse currency crisis," his long-term outlook for the U.S. dollar, and an Asian-driven oil demand shock that could rile markets and challenge the ability of monetary authorities to balance their mandates of maintaining price stability while also supporting economic growth and maximum employment. Vincent also shares his suggestions on how to construct a "fiscal dominance" portfolio, including which asset classes he believes will outperform under the new macroeconomic conditions that they discuss in their conversation and how investors can best manage risk and reward in this new paradigm.

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00:00 Introduction
05:33 The Importance of Historical Perspective in Economics
09:54 Structural Forces Shaping Global Markets
11:42 Demographic Shocks and Fiscal Dominance
27:18 Geopolitical Fragmentation and Decline of Institutional Trust
31:46 US Energy Independence and Global Influence
32:32 Old Elites vs. New Elites
33:37 Trump's Foreign Policy Tactics
38:29 Fiscal Dominance and Historical Parallels
43:21 Recessions Have Been Canceled
45:04 Structural Resilience of Modern Economies
46:36 The Role of Intangible Assets
48:27 Policymakers and Central Bankers' Mission Creep
53:41 Hyperactive Policymaking and Aging Populations
55:22 The Political Liability of Stock Market Dependency
56:27:01 Topics for the second hour