InterMarket Analysis Update for Monday September 29, 2025

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Intermarket Analysis Video Update Summary prepared for Monday, September 29, 2025.
This weekly video provides an intermarket analysis, comparing the S&P 500 with other markets and asset classes to gain insights into market trends. Analysis emphasizes a data-driven approach, using ratios, correlations, and historical context to assess market dynamics. It is important to look beyond overvaluation narratives to understand underlying market drivers.
Key points include:
1. Valuation: The S&P 500 is overvalued based on historical and forward-looking earnings, with a P/E ratio above 20 (currently at 22.5) and a Shiller CAPE ratio at 39.84%. Despite overvaluation, strong earnings and investor demand continue to push stock prices higher.
2. Market Performance: Growth stocks are outperforming value stocks, though recent pullbacks suggest short-term defensive positioning.
3. Inflation: The core PCE report indicates inflation is "sticky" just below 3%, above the Fed’s 2% target. Some charts suggest rising inflationary pressures (e.g., Pring’s inflation/deflation ratio), but others, such as the CRB index, show no significant inflation surge.
4. Sectors and Indexes: The 11 S&P 500 sectors are analyzed, with growth sectors such as technology and communication performing well, while staples, real estate, and healthcare are underperforming. Small and mid-cap stocks are in uptrends but face pressure due to stronger-than-expected economic data reducing expectations for Fed rate cuts.
5. Other Markets:
Commodities: Gold and silver are near all-time highs, with silver outperforming gold. Oil is slightly up, aiding the energy sector, while other commodities such as corn and wheat are in downtrends.
Currencies: The U.S. dollar is under pressure, benefiting assets like stocks and gold. The euro is in an uptrend, while the yen remains sideways.
Bonds: Bonds are underperforming stocks, with junk bonds favored over government bonds. Interest rates are rising despite Fed rate cuts, which is counterintuitive but consistent with recent trends.
6. Key Ratios and Trends:
Growth-to-value ratios show growth outperforming but with recent pullbacks, indicating potential short-term caution.
The NASDAQ 100 and mega-cap stocks (e.g., Google, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia) continue to outperform, though small caps are lagging.
The Dow is at all-time highs, but transports and utilities show non-confirmation under Dow Theory.
7. Positive/Negative List: Most asset classes are positive, with the U.S. dollar index as the only negative performer in 2025, supporting gains in stocks, gold, and other assets.
8. Long-Term Trends: Monthly charts indicate long-term uptrends in U.S. stocks, with emerging markets outperforming in 2025. Momentum oscillators show mixed signals, with some declining but overall market trends remain positive.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/12YE4SMKJqwYGwdZIyLQfERtcnf-V8fHu/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!