Could Moscow Win Back Moldova

Could Russia be about to regain control over Moldova? More than three decades after the fall of the Soviet Union, the small Eastern European state remains deeply divided as it heads into one of the highest-stakes elections in its recent history. While pro-European leaders, including President Maia Sandu and her Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), have sought closer ties with the European Union, securing EU candidate status in 2022, Russia has maintained its grip on large parts of Moldovan society via energy dependency, media, economic ties, and long-standing cultural connections. Meanwhile, with breakaway Transnistria still hosting Russian troops and the autonomous region of Gagauzia leaning toward Moscow, the country’s internal divisions remain a central feature of Moldova’s politics.

Now, with parliamentary elections approaching, Chisinau faces growing allegations of Russian interference, cyberattacks, and hybrid tactics designed to destabilise its European path, and the stakes could not be higher. A victory for the pro-European PAS would allow reforms and EU integration to move ahead, strengthening Europe’s eastern frontier and delivering a symbolic defeat for Moscow. But if pro-Russian forces led by Igor Dodon’s Patriotic Electoral Bloc gain ground, Moldova’s EU ambitions could stall, with ripple effects across the region. At its core, this is more than just a national election—it is a battle for Moldova’s future orientation, and a crucial test of whether Russia can still sway its neighbours through influence, subversion, and disinformation, rather than outright war.

*VIDEO CHAPTERS*
00:00 Introduction and Titles
00:44 Former Soviet Republics between Russia and the West
02:00 Moldova: Location and Population
03:08 Russia, Romania, and the Emergence of Moldova
04:41 Russia and Moldova since 1991
05:54 Moldova, Russia, and the European Union
07:57 Moldova’s 2025 Parliamentary Elections
09:58 The Geopolitical Impact of Moldova’s Election

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