InterMarket Analysis Update for Monday September 22, 2025

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The intermarket analysis video update, prepared for September 22, 2025, provides a weekly overview of market trends with no significant changes from prior weeks. Key points include:
Market Performance: Major indices (S&P, Dow, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100) are hitting all-time highs, with growth outperforming value. The market remains positive, but daily and weekly charts show some vulnerabilities, particularly as a weaker seasonal period approaches post-September options expiration.
Sentiment and Valuation: Sentiment suggests room for further upside due to fear of missing out, despite overvaluation. The S&P’s P/E ratio is significantly above the historical norm (20), with current levels indicating overvaluation above the 4,300 level. Forward-looking P/E ratios show mega-cap stocks at 30.2, while mid and small caps are more reasonably priced (16.2 and 15.7, respectively).
Growth vs. Value: Growth continues to outperform value across various indices and ETFs, though small-cap growth-to-value ratios show some weakness.
Inflation and Commodities: One proprietary chart signals inflationary concerns, but this isn’t confirmed elsewhere. Commodities (CRB index) are in an uptrend but not indicating hyperinflation. Other markets including aluminum, corn, wheat, and oil show mixed trends, with oil declining and copper rebounding slightly.
Other Markets: The U.S. dollar index is in a downtrend, boosting the euro and pound. Gold and silver are near or at all-time highs, with silver outperforming gold. Bonds show mixed signals, with high-yield and corporate bonds near highs, but long-term bonds underperforming stocks.
Sector Analysis: Tech and communication are leading, setting all-time highs, while financials, industrials, and real estate are underperforming the S&P. Discretionary sectors show recent strength, and semiconductors are near highs but not consistently leading.
Correlations and Trends: Stocks are outperforming commodities and bonds, with the NASDAQ 100 and mega-cap growth leading. The S&P equal weight is lagging slightly, and the transports are failing to confirm the Dow highs. Global stocks (ex-U.S.) are strong, but U.S. stocks are underperforming world stocks.
Positive-Negative List: Most asset classes are positive, except for the U.S. dollar index, which remains negative.
Overall, the market outlook remains positive but with potential for a decline rather than a reversal, as overvaluation and seasonal weaknesses are monitored.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1j_cIZJ9_2MEMrOJtFO9OX8UW5Gp7gbWe/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!