Ukrainian army successfully counterattacks in Donetsk_ Russians pushed back, territories liberated

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Ukrainian military analyst Ivan Stupak said there is no distinct “spring-summer offensive” and that Russia’s strategic aims are vague.

“The Russian army has been advancing nonstop since October 2023. Without clear plans, the Kremlin can call any outcome a ‘victory’ — you can always present the results you achieved as the original plan,” Stupak told The Moscow Times.

According to the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War, Russia has gained about 2,346 square kilometers and 130 settlements since March 1 — roughly a third less than Kremlin claimed.

Around Kupiansk satellite imagery and open-source data suggest Moscow controls only 6.3% of the city’s built-up areas.

On the ground, Moscow failed to capture a single major Ukrainian city this summer.

The only clear success came in Chasiv Yar, a small but strategic Donetsk region town where months of fighting left much of the settlement in ruins.

Elsewhere, Russian advances have stalled or been rolled back.

Russian troops reached the outskirts of Pokrovsk, a Ukrainian stronghold in Donetsk, but failed to secure control.

In August, Russian units made a swift advance near Dobropillia northeast of Pokrovsk, but Ukrainian forces have since regained some ground in a counteroffensive.

Stupak, citing military sources, said Kyiv is now trying to “trim” the salient around Dobropillia; the process is slow and costly, but Ukraine so far retains the initiative in this localized operation.

In Kupiansk, which Ukrainian forces liberated from Russian occupation in late 2022, more than a year of grinding combat has yet to yield a breakthrough.

Gerasimov’s claim that half the city is under Russian control has not been confirmed by Ukrainian OSINT projects and has even drawn skepticism from some pro-Russian bloggers.

The pro-Russian Telegram channel Anatoly Radov, citing Russian soldiers, reported that a significant part of the area around Kupiansk is a “grey zone” where small groups of soldiers move through the forests rather than a consolidated occupation.

“They are slowly pushing through our defenses. We’re short on manpower — some units are down to 14% of their strength. A Ukrainian retreat is inevitable, but not on the scale the Kremlin wants,” Ukrainian expert Stupak said.

Russia exploits Ukraine’s manpower shortage by sending small groups to slip through Kyiv’s positions and then bring in reinforcements to seize ground, Stupak said.

The Russian Defense Ministry has released footage of soldiers planting flags in contested areas of Kupiansk, presenting them as evidence of conquests. But critics — including pro-Russian bloggers — say these are often symbolic photo opportunities rather than proof of lasting control.

“The news about the liberation of half of Kupiansk is doubly sensational, considering that it goes into the report to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief,” wrote Russian military correspondent Yuri Kotenok, referring to Putin. “Now it remains to be seen where this came from and who, in fact, was the author or co-author of this presentation in the General Staff.”

They allege that commanders are sending ill-prepared troops on suicidal missions to produce images that match official statements.

“This is outright betrayal! Don’t the people at the top understand this is the end for the assault troops, our guys? It’s a one-way mission,” the Telegram channel Yasinovataya: Donbas on the Frontline wrote in response to Gerasimov’s statements and the Defense Ministry's videos from Kupiansk.

The human toll of Russia’s offensive is staggering.