Rising Reversal Risk In Stocks? | Lance Roberts

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Right now nearly every asset class in rising in price simultaneously.

And many indices and individual securities are hitting all-time highs.

Investors are getting increasingly confident -- which explains the ongoing melt-up.

How long will it last?

And when it reverses, will it do so gently? Or violently?

The longer the current momentum continues at this pace, the more likely the reckoning is sooner and more painful.

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss why, as well as the latest technical analysis, this week's FOMC release, gold, AI, social media, the just-announced TikTok deal, the housing market and Lance's firm's latest trades.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

#interestrates #marketcorrection #bullmarket

0:00 - Market Heat: High Correlation Across Asset Classes (Stocks, Gold, Bitcoin)
2:48 - Why This Rally Isn't "Broken" Yet – Investment Committee Insights
3:35 - Train Analogy: Momentum Hard to Stop Despite Slowing Economy
4:36 - Earnings as Key Driver: Bull Case vs. Risk of Reversal
7:16 - Broad Momentum: Accumulator Model +8%, All-Weather +6%, AI +9%
8:14 - Outlook: Exuberance Leads to 5-10% Correction, But Hard to Time
10:11 - Tax Cuts Minor; Deregulation & AI Could Drive Growth (Nvidia-Intel Stake)
13:31 - Historical Parallels: 1998-99, 2021 Euphoria Ends in Corrections
14:46 - Q4 Tailwinds: Earnings Beats, Buybacks +50% YoY, Manager Chasing
16:42 - Bias Upward Through Year-End, But 3-5% Pullback Possible
18:53 - Google Parabolic: 3-4 Std Dev Above Moving Averages
19:35 - Standard Deviations Explained: 99% Odds of Correction
24:18 - Gold Also Parabolic: Take Profits, Hedge Positions
27:02 - Google AI Threat: Search Monopoly at Risk from Ad Revenue Loss
37:47 - Mark Newton Outlook: Momentum to Oct/Nov, Then Correction into 2026
41:22 - Fed Meeting Recap: 25bps Cut as Expected, Markets Flat
44:14 - Dot Plot: 4 More Cuts into 2026; Projections Show Slow Growth (1.8%)
48:45 - TikTok Deal: Missed Chance to Curb Societal Harm from Social Media
59:27 - Housing Cracks: Inventory Up in Midwest/Northeast (Boston +11%)
1:04:54 - Idea: Incentive Kids to Live Nearby – Free House After Raising Family
1:18:03 - Trades: Position Swaps Next Week – Max 30 Stocks for Outperformance
1:20:21 - Rant: Lance's Wife Post-Chemo – Back to Work, Hilarious Wig Story
1:26:40 - YouTube Wins: Nutritious, Authentic Content on Demand
1:31:16 - Hater Drama: Troll Picks Fights for Visibility – Followers Defend
1:39:46 - Defense: Lance as "Eagle" – Balanced, Not Bearish/Bullish
1:51:18 - Lance Update: 5 Chemo Left – Anniversaries Ahead
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